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For Price Fluctuations of Monetary Policy Tools to the Effectiveness of the Research

Author: SunTieJun
Tutor: TianChengShi
School: Dongbei University of Finance
Course: Statistics
Keywords: Monetary policy Stock prices Co-integration Stock segmentation reform
CLC: F822.0;F832.51
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 86
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Regulating the monetary policy under the condition of stock market’s development is not only an important theoretical problem, but also a controversial issue. The rapid development of stock market affects the efficiency of the monetary policy via some way, and the influence of different monetary policy tools may not the same. The main purpose of this paper is to research the effectiveness of the monetary policy tools on the fluctuation of share price, which can provide the institution safeguard for healthy, orderly and steady development of our country’s stock market, also the principle and the underlying policies for the monetary authority.With the deepening and furthering of our country’s opening and reforming and the plague of current financial turmoil from Wall Street, Japan and many European countries are undergoing recession. The growth of world economy slows down, and pessimistic mood is diffusing in the market. China’s economy is facing major challenges and tests due to intense changes of the international economic conditions. Elaborating the principle and policy implication of how to maintain economy stability and improve the efficiency of national financial system to allocate resources has became the focus of research for both economic field and government departments. Therefore, studying whether stock price fluctuations can be handled effectively with monetary policy and the corresponding policies has both theoretical and practical significance.After the segmentation reform, stock market develops rapidly, and it plays a more and more important role on real economy. The paper mainly studies the necessity of intervention to stock market by central bank and the effectiveness of the monetary policy. Finally, corresponding policies are put forward.Methods of theoretical analysis and empirical research are adopted, such as the Co-integration test, Granger causality test and so on. Conclusions are as follows.1. Different levels of money supply influence the stock price positively, though the magnitude may be different. Ml is the Granger cause to fluctuation of stock price, and its magnitude is larger than MO and M2.2. Effect of interest rate on stock price is uncertain, which depends on the lever of money supply. This may partly attribute to national conditions. At present, interest rate is not of Marketization, and its impact on share price cannot be fully reflected by available data.3. The central bank should focus on the impact of stock price fluctuations on monetary policies, macro economy, real economy, and demand for money. In short, the stock price fluctuation should be concerned rather than intervened, for lack of power to manipulate the stock price. The central bank can make correct suggestions to the monetary authority through analyzing reliable statistics, so as to improve the efficiency of policy making and executing.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Financial market
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