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Research on Warning System of Supply Chain Crisis

Author: YangZuoLong
Tutor: CaiQiMing
School: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Crisis management of the supply chain Crisis incentives Support vector regression Crisis early warning model
CLC: F274
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2007
Downloads: 488
Quote: 0
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Abstract


With the advent of the era of knowledge economy, the dynamic of the market competition, the trend of globalization makes strategic partner to obtain a competitive advantage in the process of showing an increasingly important role in the enterprise, supply chain management because of the rapid response to market requirements, flexible high cost The low advantage by the attention of the business community and theorists. The difference between similar products of different enterprises in the market is getting smaller and smaller, the the industry memory in the clear technological advantage is less and less, leading to competition between the modern market competition has not just business to business, more is counterbalance between enterprise where the supply chain. Made the initiative to \Therefore, significant supply chain crisis warning system. The study on supply chain management theory, the theory of risk management and crisis early warning theory research-based, systems engineering approach as a tool, as the research object to supply chain risk, supply chain crisis warning as the main line, supply chain risk and crisis incentives comprehensive and systematic analysis of research, and the establishment of a crisis early warning evaluation index system, warning of the crisis in the supply chain is ultimately achieved through early warning model function. Firstly a comprehensive analysis of the situation of supply chain management and crisis management, including supply chain development process, current research focus, current status and trends of supply chain management; trend as well as the concept of crisis management and research; provide a theoretical basis for the supply chain crisis following incentives. Subsequently, the crisis incentives on the supply chain analysis study, start from the inside and outside of the supply chain crisis incentives crisis of incentives for research assumptions, according to the design of the questionnaire of the research hypotheses by statistical analysis of the questionnaire results, judgment crisis incentives assumptions reasonable. And incentive to carry out culling and classified using statistical methods, and ultimately the formation of a more scientific crisis incentive system. Based on scientific analysis of the the Supply Chain crisis incentives in accordance with the design ideas of the index system, supply chain crisis incentives factors indicators treatment, and explanation of each indicator, and ultimately the formation of a more comprehensive set of supply chain crisis early warning indicator system. Finally, the core part of this article, based on support vector regression to build a supply chain crisis early warning model. An algorithm for support vector machine support vector regression, and support vector machine is an advanced learning methods based on statistical learning theory and structural risk minimization, in resolving the small samples, nonlinear and high dimensional pattern recognition problem exhibit many unique advantages. Finally, select the Dongfeng Electric Co. Ltd. verify the model and empirical analysis.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Enterprise economy > Enterprise Marketing Management
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