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The Effects of RMB Exchange Rate on Our Import and Export

Author: YangDong
Tutor: FengMei
School: Hebei Normal
Course: World economy
Keywords: RMB exchange rate Import and export Lag effect J-curve effect
CLC: F832.6;F752.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 915
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RMB exchange rate issue has always been China and even the world's hot issues of great concern to Europe and the United States and other developed countries to revalue its currency increasingly vocal. Exchange rate movements will inevitably cause greater China Import and Export, thereby affecting the process of China's economic development. In this context, this paper focus on the fixed exchange rate regime and the floating exchange rate system of RMB exchange rate changes impact on China's import and export empirical analysis, comparative analysis of the different effects of China's import and export of the RMB exchange rate movements in both exchange rate system, and thus better policy recommendations on the basis of this study. The part of the introduction first describes the general background of the thesis topics. China after the reform of the exchange rate system in July 2005, and especially after the 2008 financial crisis into the RMB exchange rate \big impact. Then the part of the significance of the thesis elaborated this paper, empirical analysis of impact on the import and export of the RMB exchange rate movements in the fixed exchange rate regime and the floating exchange rate regime, designed to then put forward by both mutual comparison than good policy proposals, so as to promote the sustained and healthy development of the Chinese economy. Finally, this section also heavy and difficult, and the innovation of this research ideas and research analysis. The first part of this section of the literature review literature on domestic first introduced. Part of the domestic scholars believe that the ML conditions in China does not hold or just at the critical value; another part of the scholars that the ML condition in our country is a long established, and some scholars still based on whether there is impact on the import and export of foreign exchange rate changes on China The lag effect. Second, this section describes the foreign literature, the point of view of foreign scholars and is roughly the same as domestic. Immediately following this section puzzled solution and objections to the issues of domestic and international literature perspective. The second part overview of the theory and modeling This section first describes the use analysis theory as one price law of PPP theory, the Marshall-Lerner condition (ML) and the J-curve effect, especially for the ML condition in the appreciation of the conditions under the direct quotation exchange rates for the derivation of a mathematical formula. Then the part under a fixed exchange rate regime and the floating exchange rate system, the need to test variables were constructed model, in particular a description of the data sources and processing. Finally, the general method of processing data in this article. The third part of the empirical test of this part of China's import and export demand model built on the basis of elastic analysis ADF test, and the data from 1994 to 2005 (including the exchange rate of the real effective exchange rate) on EVIEWS6.0 EG two-step test, there is cointegration relationship come to the RMB exchange rate and China's import and export. Error correction model, then, come to China's import and export demand elasticity Marshall - Lerner condition is not satisfied. Under the fixed exchange rate system, the changes in the real effective exchange rate of the RMB is not a significant impact on our import and export. At the same time, the ADF test on monthly data from July 2005 to June 2010 (in which the exchange rate is the nominal effective exchange rate), JJ test obtained in the process of change in the exchange rate regime, China meet Marshall - Lerner conditions, that the RMB exchange rate changes affect the import and export of the country. And on this basis to build autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model test results showed the lagged effects of the RMB exchange rate RMB nominal exchange rate changes on the adjustment of China's import and export of the J-curve effect. The lag effect of the RMB exchange rate movements on the impact of China's import and export trade. The fourth part of the empirical results of analysis of this part, respectively, of the the standard cointegration equation, and the time lag effect of the error correction model of import and export demand equation under a fixed exchange rate regime and the floating exchange rate regime, the import and export demand. Pave the way for policy recommendations. The fifth part of the policy recommendations to the part of the former policy recommendations on the basis of the text analysis provide some test basis for our government in the future on the adjustment of the exchange rate regime.

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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > States foreign trade > China's foreign trade > Import and Export Trade Overview
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