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The Empirical Analysis of Influential Factors of Net Barter Terms of Trade in China

Author: ShiLin
Tutor: ZuoYuZuo;YeJiao
School: Dalian University of Technology
Course: International trade
Keywords: Terms of trade Industrial structure The structure of export commodities Foreign Investment Granger causality test
CLC: F752
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2008
Downloads: 390
Quote: 1
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Abstract


With the acceleration of the process of globalization, foreign trade has become an important driving force in the growth of national economies. Countries in the process of participation in international trade, the most concern is how much each trade interests, the terms of trade as a measure of a country's international trade an important indicator of the size of interest, always of the important issues of modern economics. a. That scholars of international trade to promote economic growth in China \Some of them believe that China has entered the impoverishment of growth, while others think the opposite. To this end, the authors have chosen the price terms of trade as an object of study, discussed in depth over the past two decades of reform and opening up, price changes in terms of trade position, influence factors and price terms of trade in China in the next few years at the top of the results of their own research The development trend forecast. After a brief review of the representation theory of domestic and foreign trade-related conditions, combined with the current situation of China's foreign trade development, empirical analysis, come to the conclusion of the overall decline in long-term price terms of trade trends in China. 1981-2006 data after the industrial structure, the Granger causality test analysis of the structure of import and export commodities, economic growth, foreign direct investment enterprises and price terms of trade, and the following conclusions: the price terms of trade and industrial structure the structure of export commodities, foreign direct investment in the long-run equilibrium relationship. Granger causality test further: price terms of trade and industrial structure, foreign direct investment causal relationship to each other. Among them, the price of deteriorating terms of trade deterioration of the industrial structure and foreign direct investment, the deterioration of the industrial structure and foreign direct investment, the price terms of trade deterioration; price terms of trade and export commodity structure performance single direction of causality, that export commodities structure to improve the cause of the deterioration of the price terms of trade, while the price of the deterioration of the terms of trade are not the reasons for the increase of the export commodity structure. Price terms of trade and economic growth, there is no long-run equilibrium relationship. China is a developing country, it is a big developing country, China was the result of the phenomenon of deteriorating terms of trade, the structure of export commodities of the reason is that our country's economic growth, while still mainly labor-intensive products, product low \While exports of foreign-funded enterprises are still mainly in the processing trade, China has become the world \Therefore, the key to improve the terms of trade in the short term is to inhibit the excessive growth of investment, upgrading of product structure and changes in the structure of export commodities is a long-term strategy to improve the terms of trade.

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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > States foreign trade > China's foreign trade
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