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Study on Appraisal of Cultivated Land Value

Author: TangJian
Tutor: PengZuo
School: Southwestern University
Course: Agricultural Economics and Management
Keywords: Cultivated Land Value Evaluation Simultaneous Equations Model Non-market Value Valuation Method (CVM) Grey System Prediction
CLC: F323.211
Type: PhD thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 157
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Abstract


1.Objectives and significanceA few shortcomings are existed in appraisal theory and policy of cultiveaed land in China, the most important shortcomings is that the value of farmland was generally grossly underestimated. Specifically, when income approach and other methods are used, the farmland value is calculated according as the data of existing land use, ignoring a problem on farmland use under the difference of the capital, labor quality, supply and demand, location advantages and so on. But in many rural areas elders and women engage in agriculture production, so as to underutilization of land, thereby being the more prominent underestimated problem; local government often directly compare benefit of cultivated agricultural production with benefit of nonagricultural use, when the use of farmland is changed. They ignore the social value and ecological value of land, and the value of land are also underestimated. Therefore, evaluation of land value is great significance for the protection of arable land, to protect the interests of land transfer’s farmers, to promote orderly transfer of land, to build a reasonable compensation system for cultivated land.2. Main research contentsThe paper took connotation of Land value as start point, summing up the theory and practice of cultivated land value, use economics, ecological economics, resource economics and other disciplines theory, and mainly carrying out research in four areas:First, study on the theoretical framework of land valuation. Based on the theoretical reference of cultivated land valuation, the paper revealed the connotation of cultivated land value, and cleared land valuation of the target, premise, principles, contents, methods and procedures to form a conceptual framework of appraisal of cultivated land value under the precondition of sustainable development in china.Second, study on the economic value of cultivated land resources. The existing research results and their shortage were mainly analyzed, and the paper took supply and demand of agricultural products, use patterns, location factor and other factors into model, built simultaneous equations linear and logarithmic models, took various factors as precondition, and for example of ChongQing, made use of 3SLS and GMM to estimate the parameters and model optimization by use of a large amount of rural land survey data in order to reveal the interaction relationship between the various relevant factors, and estimated economic value of land in Chongqing from the micro and macro angle.The third, study on the social and ecological value of arable land resources. Use of questionnaires of payment cards and double bounded technology, respectively got information about urban residents’aspects of cognition on land resources of social and ecological value, WTP, socio-economic characteristics and WTA in Chongqing. On this basis, selected the Logistic model to estimate to average willingness to pay and willingness of payment for farmers, will offer empirical reference for the government implementing land policies of non-market value compensation.The fourth is study and prediction on the comprehensive value of farmland. The future earnings of cultivated land resources was estimated by gray prediction method in order to overcome the defects which traditional method suppose that earnings of farmland is not change in future, and estimate the integrated value of arable land resources in Chongqing.3. ConclusionsThe main conclusions are as follows:(1)There are mutually causal relationships between the important factors in the economic value of arable land system, and utilization way and technical factors factors play an importance role in the cultivated land of the economic value. Simultaneous equation model estimation results also show that the major factors in the economic value of arable land have the endogenous problem between them, and are explanatory variables or explanatory variables each other, with two-way causality. According to simultaneous equation system model estimated 3SLS or GMM method, the relevant factors have a role in the economic benefits of cultivated land, but there is obvious difference about the effect size and ways to economic benefits of cultivated land, utilization way, technical factors, taxes and subsidies have important and direct influence to economic benefits of cultivated land, while labor, capital and other factors affect use types of cultivated land, they act on economic benefits of farmland through utilization way.(2)The economic value of land show rise posture in ChongQing, but overall usage level is low. The empirical results show that it raised in the annual economic output value of farmland in ChongQing, the economic value of arable land in 2008 was 1.39 times than in 2003. Forecast also showed that 2009 and subsequent growth of the economic value of cultivated land is more significant; in 2008, arable land economic value is 45.44% of the total value, the percent will also be increasing, which indicates that the economic value of arable land predominates more than the other individual value of land. However, surveys from more than 20 counties of view, there is a considerable number of unreasonable and inadequate use to cultivated land, and there are lots of appearance which land was abandoned, farmland income share of total rural household income is also getting smaller and smaller, the overall use level of cultivated land in Chongqing is low, comparing with the eastern and coastal area.(3)The social value of land in ChongQing grow slowly, the importance of the social function of land has a risk that it will be fall. The empirical results show that the social value of land in Chongqing has a significant volatility between 2003 and 2008, and social benefits of farmland in Chongqing is significant ups and downs, but the overall is slow growth, average annual growth rate of 0.72%.It is must to say that Chongqing’s social output value of cultivated land each year the proportion of the total value shows a declining trend, in 2003 the total value accounted for 27.88% of cultivated land, in 2008 fell to 23.5%, indicating that the social value of land in the total value of farmland becoming more and more light, the importance of the social value of cultivated land is facing a decline in risk.(4)The ecological value of farmland is huge in ChongQing, urban and rural residents will obviously differently pay for individual ecological function. Under the double-bounded guide technology, the logistic regression model estimate per urban willingness to pay the ecological value of arable land is 309.21 Yuan, the rural is 244.52 Yuan. In 2008 ecological functions of farmland depending on urban and rural residents willingness in ChongQing is 8.51×109 Yuan in total, accounting for 18.41% of agricultural GDP in Chongqing, representing the city’s primary industry output value of 14.79%, indicating that the ecological value of land great. Under the guidance technology of payment card results show that urban and rural residents on the land of ecological value of individual willingness to pay are low, the overall ecological function of urban residents per capita was slightly higher than rural per capita WTP. Ecological functions in the individual WTP, the urban per capita cultivated land soil conservation function on WTP is the maximum about 20.49 Yuan, while adjusting the climate on WTP is minimum about 17.15 Yuan; rural per capita farmland soil conservation on WTP is the maximum about 19.40 Yuan, while the arable land of culture and entertainment features low acceptance, the corresponding WTP to 14.48 Yuan, indicating that individual ecological functions of urban and rural residents will pay more significant differences exist.(5)Family income obviously influents the urban and rural residents’WTP, but there is far distance between WTP and WTA about non-market land value. According to the regression model and Beta coefficient formula can calculate the importance of economic characteristics factors. The results show that the socio-economic characteristics factors play different role in WTP, in which family income has great effects on non-market value of land, indirect prove that the level of WTP or WTA is relevant to stage of economic development. From comparing with the urban WTP and the rural WTA, in double-bounded contingent model, in 2008 the social function of cultivated land per capita of urban residents WTP for the 366.67 Yuan, the per capita cultivated land social function of the debt will of 492.85 Yuan,2008, close to urban and rural population, and therefore the social function of land and repayment of the overall WTP will vary by 1.5 times; 2008, cultivated land per capita in urban ecological function of the WTP for the 309.21 Yuan, rural per capita of the debt corresponding to 891.96 Yuan, the overall ecological function of land will and WTA nearly three times the difference. These results suggest that non-market land value falls far short of WTP and WTA, which suppliers (farmers) and demand (urban residents) on the hypothetical market goods (land of non-market functions) there is a big price differences, commodity trading can not be achieved, in other words, if a simple way to achieve will depend on the non-market value of land is not realistic.(6)Cultivated value system is dynamic, and the cultivated land value was greatly underestimated by the traditional method. Value system consist of the economic value of subsystem, social value of subsystem and ecological value of subsystem, each subsystem is composed of several of factors, while land use patterns, technical factors, and other factorst are dynamic change. These factors change over time, makes the land value system is dynamic and uncertain, and it also breaks the traditional methods of basic assumptions and the estimated value (equal to annual revenue of cultivated land). For example of ChongQing’land value accounting, traditional accounting methods to estimate the value of land in ChongQing in 2008 the value (economic value) is 12.45×109 Yuan, less estimated non-market value of cultivated land (social value and ecological value) up to 14.95×109 Yuan; from look at the overall value of land in order to prevail in 2008 by 8% discount rate, the traditional method to calculate the value of farmland in ChongQing value 155.625×109 Yuan, while the overall value and benefits of changes in land characteristics of a conservative estimate, Chongqing value of cultivated land 817.425×109 Yuan. Clearly, the traditional approach ignores the non-market value of land and land revenue dynamic, its result is seriously underestimated the value of cultivated land.4. Innovation points(1) Building a relatively comprehensive assessment of land value of the theoretical framework. Previous studies have focused on the domestic value of the quantitative study of cultivated land, ignoring the land value assessment objective, assessment premise and other important contents, system of land valuation theoretical framework was rarely found. Therefore, the theoretical framework of land valuation was constructed based on land value of content, and the value of the land evaluation objectives, evaluation of the premise, the principles, content evaluation, evaluation methods and evaluation procedures were more in-depth study. Non-market value of land evaluation possible to identify the premise and the principle of a fair evaluation were firstly put forward.(2) System of simultaneous equations model is created about economic value of arable land evaluation. Existing literature are often used income approach, or a single equation (such as the production function) Empirical land economic value, income approach and although the land can directly calculate the economic benefits that year, but ignored the land use patterns, technological and other factors that may cause "there are different price between the same level lands" abnormal phenomena, but a single equation can not solve the problem which there is between the economic value of arable land affected by many factors and models of multi-nonlinearity and serial correlation. To this end, we constructed simultaneous equations model which consist of a number of factors including, and optimizing and testing by data in ChongQing, revealed that the factors affecting the economic value of land the internal quantitative relation.(3) Using a variety of methods evaluated and compared the social and ecological farmland value. Social value and ecological value of land evaluation method is more, but existing research literature often took results of a single evaluation method as the final results, and there are vary widely results between different methods, resulting in unscientific conclusion. In this paper depended on face to face questionnaire respectively, got data of cultivated land resources for urban residents in social value and ecological value of WTP, and farmer’s WTA. On this basis, this paper selected the CVM method of payment card technology and the double bounded contingent technology to evaluate social value and ecological value of on arable land and, used of Logistic model estimated average WTP and WTA of urban and rural residents, confirmed the size of their differences, reveal the different influence of land socio-economic characteristics to non-market value.(4)Comprehensive value of farmland was appraised basis of dynamic characteristics of land. Value of cultivated land has dynamic characteristics, which directly refuted the basic assumption that is "equal annual revenue of cultivated land" in the majority of existing literature, and land value was significantly underestimated under the traditional method. Based on this, the situation of farmland was estimated by gray forecasting, using regression equations to get growth, in order to overcome the defects of traditional calculating growth rate, and finally the integrated value of farmland in Chongqing area was estimated.

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CLC: > Economic > Agricultural economy > China 's agricultural economy > Construction and development of agricultural economy > Agricultural resources development and utilization of > Types and evaluation of agricultural resources > Land, arable land resources
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