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The probability transition matrix model is widely used in the dynamic simulation of the forest population . The matrix model is simple , easy to use . But the matrix model arbitrary size class divided a single state variable , single- wood characteristics are ignored , the required sample size , and many other issues . Integral prediction model (Integral Projection Model), developed in the matrix model based on the application of the discrete time variable and continuous state variables , taking into account the difference in size between the populations of single wood individual , structural dynamic simulation under different size classes , eliminate the artificial division of arbitrariness , more in line with population biology . The same time , compared to the matrix model constructed integral prediction model requires less amount of data , and the results obtained are more accurate than the matrix model more suitable for the dynamic simulation of the larch diameter structure . In this paper, integral prediction model , to Northeast China in over-logged forest areas near natural larch Chunlin , 20 plots four times at five-year intervals of the survey data , the establishment of a the larch structured population dynamics model . The research results show that the model can output stable population growth rate , sensitivity and elasticity analysis , so as to predict the structure of populations of long-term stability . At the same time , the integral prediction model can also analyze short-term dynamic changes of the population under random environmental conditions and long-term stable distribution , completely describe the the Larix structure dynamic change .
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