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The Empirical Analysis of the Influence of International Commodity Prices on China Inflation

Author: FuMinMin
Tutor: XueYuHua
School: Suzhou University
Course: Finance
Keywords: international commodity price inflation VAR model
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 187
Quote: 3
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With China’s rapid economic growth, China became a net importer of raw materials. The fact makes China’s economic development relies heavily on international raw material market, but also makes international commodity prices have the influence on China’s commodities price increasingly significant. And when the international commodity prices were rising, China happened inflation. So people will question whether there is causality between Chinese inflation and international commodity price. If there is, what kind of commodities cause the more significantly influence.For the first question this thesis adopted the CRB spot price index the Purchasing, Price Index of Raw Material, Fuel and Power Producer’s Price Index for Manufactured Products (PPI) and the consumer price index (CPI). Through the VAR model, impulse response analysis and Granger causality test we found that the effect of CRB spot price to RPI, PPI is significant, it is a Granger cause in the following six months and cause the greatest impact on the following 2,3 months. But the CRB spot price index’s leading role to the CPI was not significant. It has weaker positive effect to CPI in only 2 months. The transmission of PPI to CPI is also broken. In this paper we gave the reasonable explanation of the results considering the actual situation.For the second question this thesis selected the crude oil, soybeans and copper to do empirical test. First, we described these commodities’situation including import and domestic supply and demand. Also we compared the trend of international prices and domestic prices. Then through VAR model, impulse response analysis we found that soybean has the greatest impact on China’s PPI, then crude oil and copper. Finally, we analyzed what kind of the international commodities will have a greater impact of inflation.Finally, to prevent international commodity price fluctuations risk and curb inflation, we should change the economic growth mode, adjust the industrial structure, reserve strategic materials and make international anti-inflation coordination.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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