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The Research on the Strategy Model of Chinese Energy Development

Author: ShenYuZhi
Tutor: DuanKeXin
School: Liaoning Technical University
Course: Mining engineering
Keywords: Energy development Energy production structure Energy Consumption structure Multi-goal strategic model System dynamics model Energy policy suggestion
CLC: F426.2
Type: PhD thesis
Year: 2004
Downloads: 2914
Quote: 25
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Abstract


Energy is important basic natural resource of human existence, economic development, and society progress. It’s important strategic material, which is related to economic lifeline and safety of a country. It’s also the important basis of sustainable development of society economy. It plays an important role in the structure of modernization. This thesis makes research on the regularity of energy in our country on the basis of background and theory research and analysis of present conditions. According to its motion features it forecasts consumption volume of energy and analyses several elements related to energy production and consumption structure and makes some policy suggestions of energy development of our country.1. It analyses energy storage, production and consumption feature of our country systematically. Coal plays a leading role in the energy consumption structure of our country, about 67%. Petroleum below 25%, natural gas 2.7%, hydroelectric 5.6%, nuclear electric 0.6%, which has obvious differences compared with energy consumption structure of the world.2. It analyses the influence of economic structure, industrial structure change, and technology progress, import and export trade, international market, environment policy on the need of energy in our country. It forecasts energy need on the basis of energy production and need analysis by way of GDP, flexible index, average consumption and systematic dynamincs. According to the compared analysis neural net time series are not fit for middle and long forecast of energy, which proves the validity of the model to be true.3. It makes strategic model of multi-goal system dynamics. First, it analyses energy supply and need structure. The model can be used not only for energy macroscopic plan, but also for optimization of energy production and consumption structure.4. It makes research on energy supply and consumption structure. By the end of 2015 energy production volume will increase gradually. In the energy supply structure coal makes up 70%. Compared with 2001 it should increase 0.8 to 0.9 billion. Owing to the limitation of petroleum of supply energy, by 2015 the production volume will reach 0.18 billion, to 13%. Natural gas increases from 3% to 8%. Hydroelectric, nuclear electric, solar energy and other energy recourses make up around 9% to 10%.Coal makes up above 55% of energy consumption, especially coal for electric will increase greatly, from 56% at present to about 75% 2015. Petroleum increases from 0.25 billion at present to 0.4 billion 2015, the rate from 24% to 30%. Natural gas will increase from 3.2% to 10%. The rate of hydroelectric and nuclear electric and other energy consumption will increase gradually.By the end of 2015, energy production and need are 1.9 billion to 2.1 billion tee and 2.2 billion to 2.4 billion tee respectively. Owing to the basic contradiction, energy gap will reach 0.2 billion to 0.3 billion tee. Electric storage will increase about 0.21 billion kilowatt.5. It analyses the influences of energy on environment. The main pollutant is SO2,CO2, and dust. According to the demand of environment protection and energy cleaning. Coal cleaning rate will reach 25%, 35% and 40% respectively by 2005, 2010 and 2015. SO2 will deduce 40%. The draining off of CO2 increase rapidly. It makes climate become warm, so it should take some measures to control restrict.6. It analyses the energy dependence on the import and indicates strict supply circumstances. Along with the rapid development of auto industry and transportation industry, petroleum needs increases gradually. The petroleum dependence rate is above 50%. Petroleum safety circumstances is very strict, so import channel should be optimal to secure the safety of petroleum supply and effective measure should be taken to speed the research on coal transforming and economic development.7. Energy management department should be established to build effective motion mechanism. Our country should develop electric station to form new coal electricity mechanism and increase

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