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The Growth and the Structure Characteristic of the Industry in the Transitional Period of China

Author: KongXianLi
Tutor: GaoTieMei
School: Jilin University
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: Chinese Industry Structural Characteristics Industrial Investment Growth Fluctuation Profit Ability Industrial Energy Consumption Intensity Industrial Condition Index
CLC: F224
Type: PhD thesis
Year: 2008
Downloads: 605
Quote: 0
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Abstract


As both internal and external conditions and the environment which is faced by industry of China constantly changes in the in the Transitional Period of China, and in the process of industrial growth, the characteristics and mechanisms of the industrial sector is usually different growth because of the different in production characteristics and technical level, so the specific impact which is brought by the changes in the conditions and the environment on industrial sectors in China is not the same, thus the industry of China is rapidly growing in the same time showing a significant structural characteristics. Understanding characteristics of industrial structure, grasping the inherent laws of industrial structural changes and effectively speeding up the industrial structural adjustment and upgrading has become an important part of modern economic growth research, so this study has important theoretical and practical significance.In this paper, we analyzed the features of the evolution of Chinese industrial structure that is based on a review of the industrialization process after the reform, and summed up the main problems which is faced by the further upgrade of the Chinese industrial structure at this stage. Based on these problems, from the investment, the capital profit ability and the energy consumption, the paper researched the features of industrial growth and the structure characteristic in the Transitional Period of China based on econometric methods, computed the main Chinese industries’composite index (CI) and analyzed the features of the business cycle of these industries. The main feature of the paper is that the theoretical analysis effectively combined empirical analysis, and all the empirical analysis was based on the economic theory. Through this analysis, we attempt to enrich the economic theory about industrial structure.First, the second chapter analyzed the features of the evolution of Chinese industrial structure that is based on a review of the industrialization process after the reform, and summed up the main problems which is faced by the further upgrade of the Chinese industrial structure at this stage. Those are following: (1) Unreasonable investment structure is further exacerbated, and the investment of some raw materials industries is still rapidly growing. (2) The excessive expansion of production capacity at a low level lead to a general or structural surplus phenomenon of some industries. (3) With the rapid economic growth of China, demand of energy is growing at an unprecedented pace, and energy constraint on economic growth continuously enhances. So the extensive features of industrial production and rapid growth of high energy-consuming sectors in China have become one of the main issues faced by upgrading industry structure of China.Based on the main problem that is faced by the further upgrade of the Chinese industrial structure at this stage, the third chapter using HP filter method decomposed growth trend and fluctuation of the investment of the Chinese industry and the ten main Chinese industries and analyzed the features of each industrial investment growth fluctuation. Based on cointegration equation and error correction models of industrial investment that we set up, the third chapter of the paper discussed the long-term causal factors and the short-term market dynamic adjustment effect of the investment of the ten main Chinese industries. The discussion came to the conclusions that market-oriented investment mechanisms gradually come into being in the Chinese industry and the ten main industry, the tax policy and monetary policy in macro-control have different effect on the each industrial investment growth. and the pace which return to balance is different to the Chinese industry and the ten main industry, the first is Row Chemical Materials and Chemical Products industry and Chemical Fiber industry, the second is Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals industry, and the last is Smelting and Pressing of Nonferrous Metals industry.Based on panel datum of industries in China, the forth chapter of the paper analyzed the changes of capital profit ability of Chinese industry after WTO accession. Using the panel data model of Chinese industry, mining and quarrying industry, light industry, chemical industry and heavy industry, the forth chapter of the paper try to explain the changes from four aspects, such as the degree of competition, the level of technology, economies of scale and the degree of trade freedom and analyze the structural character. The result shows that the correlation between capital profit ability and causal factor such as the degree of competition, the level of technology, economies of scale and the degree of trade freedom of have changed after WTO accession to Chinese industry, mining and quarrying industry, light industry, chemical industry and heavy industry, and the character of the changes is different to each industry, so changes of capital profit ability of Chinese industry after WTO accession represented structural character.By using the panel data of China’s 29 industrial sectors, the fifth chapter of this paper empirically analyzed the changes of industrial energy consumption intensity and influential factors from the middle layer of industrial sectors. These impact factors on industrial energy consumption intensity include not only technology advancement and energy prices, but also export trade structure of high energy-consuming products, the enterprise ownership structure and energy substitution. And more by using the VAR(vector autoregression) model, the chapter analyzed the energy consumption mechanism of Chinese typical high-energy consumption industry , iron and steel industry. The empirical results show that: (1) the increase of science & technology expenditure contributes to the rising of high energy-consuming sectors’energy efficiency. There are great potentials of energy-saving for these sectors by developing and utilizing energy-saving technologies. (2) The enterprise ownership structure and export trade structure have significant influence on energy consumption intensity of industrial sectors. (3) The rising of the relative energy price helps to decline the industrial energy consumption intensity significantly. (4) With the rising of the ratio of electricity and oil consumption to total energy consumption, the energy consumption intensity of industrial sectors, especially high energy-consuming sectors decline. (5) To the Chinese typical high-energy consumption industry, iron and steel industry, the change of enterprise ownership structure, the rising of the relative energy price and the rising of the ratio of electricity and oil consumption to total energy consumption all will help decline energy consumption intensity of industry, and the effect of the change of enterprise ownership structure is the prominent.The index of business conditions has been used to analyze and forecast the economic cycles in China since 1980s, but the research of analyzing and forecasting the economic cycles of Chinese industry is inchoate. The conditions and environment that is faced by Chinese industry has changed after WTO accession, so the study about the index of Chinese industrial business conditions has important practical significance. The sixth chapter of the paper computed the composite index (CI) of the equipment manufacturing, the iron and steel industry and the automobile industry in China, and analyzed the features of the business cycle of these industries. The empirical results show that: (1) The equipment manufacturing in China has experienced twice business fluctuation since 2002, and now is in the raising phase of the third business fluctuation. Until 2007, the business middling cycle of the equipment manufacturing in China has primarily come into being. (2) The iron and steel industry in China has experienced twice business fluctuation since 2000, and now is in the declining phase of the third business fluctuation. Until 2007, the business middling cycle of the iron and steel industry in China has primarily come into being. (3) The automobile industry in China has experienced twice business fluctuation since 2000 January, and 2006 August is in the raising phase of the third business fluctuation. Until 2006 August, the business middling cycle of the automobile industry in China has primarily come into being.

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