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The Research on the Measure of Demand Gap and Its Effect on Conduction of Car Market in China

Author: XieShuPing
Tutor: SunWei
School: Jilin University
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: demand gap income effect passenger vehicle market conduct effect
CLC: F224.0
Type: PhD thesis
Year: 2008
Downloads: 391
Quote: 3
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During the development of industrial economy, the correlation of income effect and the demand gap which initiate the problem of investment and the conduction of market enter of Chinese passenger vehicle market are paid more attention. Through summarizing the existed literature, we find that, on the one hand, the problem of passenger vehicle market in the growth process of economy not only be discussed, but also there are some insufficiencies in the direction, system and utilization of metrics of related studies. Therefore, through expending the related theories and introducing the popular experience methods, we discover the correlation of demand gap and its conduct effect of passenger vehicle market through a scientific and more systematic view which has a certain exploration and innovation. On the other hand, as the difference of market degree and effect mechanism of international passenger vehicle market, the conduction channel of the demand gap of passenger vehicle market is not the same. Considering the lag and block question of conduct channel in the development of Chinese passenger vehicle, we do more research on the conduct effect and mechanism of demand gag of passenger vehicle market on the growth of industrial economy, which has certain practical significance on the industrial’s policy.This paper is divided by seven chapters; the concrete structure and the content arrangement are as follows:ChapterⅠIntroduction. First, we introduced briefly the related theories and background of passenger vehicle market development and the industry economy growth, stressing the insufficiencies and some improvable things in the existed domestic and foreign studies which outstanding the motivation and significance of our topic. The last is the content and the structure arrangement.ChapterⅡThe demand character and price index of Chinese passenger vehicle market. In this chapter, we analyze the supply and demand situation of passenger vehicle in our country. Based on monthly data from 2000 to 2007 of 355 kinds of vehicle type, we utilize the average weighted index method to discover the rule of price changing in passenger vehicle market, reflecting the tendency of their price changing which provides the necessity and feasibility for the coming research.ChapterⅢAsymmetry of demand-supply structure and the emergence of demand gap of Chinese passenger vehicle. Through establishing an unbalanced econometric model and related data, we analyze and portray the demand gap of passenger vehicle. Measuring the demand gap is an important part in solving the whether or not overheating problem of passenger vehicle market which laid the foundation for deep research.ChapterⅣThe correlation of income effect and demand gap. We use the integration theory to examine the long-term balanced relation of income effect and demand gap. And then we discover the positive or the negative relation between the level of price index, the disposable income of town dwellers and the sale of typical passenger vehicle type, which illustrates that the demand gap of passenger vehicle market is resulted from the income effect which leads the unbalance of supply-demand structure.ChapterⅤEconometric analysis on the investment behavior and demand gap of Chinese passenger vehicle market. We use the dynamic econometric model to analyze the investment behavior in the unbalanced supply-demand structure and the modern econometric methods to examine the causality relationship between demand gap and investment which prove the conduct effect of demand gap of passenger vehicle market. ChapterⅥAnalysis on the market enter condition and demand gap of Chinese passenger vehicle. We use the error correction model (ECM) to analyze the relation between passenger vehicle market enter and the demand gap and examined the co integration ship between the passenger vehicle market enter condition and demand gap using the Engle-Granger two steps method which again prove the conduction effect of demand gap in passenger vehicle market.ChapterⅦAnalysis on the policy of Chinese passenger vehicle industry. The international competition pattern of automobile industry has some changes; one is the global large-scale annexation, the power to power union, which expands the size and enhances the market concentration. The other is the speeding up innovation of technology, the proportion of electronic information technology product is getting higher and higher, the low emission automobile with new power, new fuel has already put into operation and the application proportion enlarge gradually. The growth demand of passenger vehicle market shows that China marched into the automobile society, the contradiction of the vehicle, the path, the environment and the energy is also incisive day by day. The environment content degree has played a key role for Chinese passenger vehicle industry to keep healthy development in a long-term. Facing domestic and foreign contradictions and problems, to formulate a innovation, overlooking, scientific and instructive industrial policy has practical significance for Chinese passenger vehicle industry.Finally we get the conclusions of this thesis.We get the following research conclusions:1. During the growth of economy and the income level continues to increases, the demand gap of passenger vehicle market and the income level presents a remarkable relationship, which denied the usual hypothesis of linear relation. The further research also indicates that the relationship between demand gap and income level of passenger vehicle is remarkable whatever the passenger vehicle market development degree is low or high which inspires us in the coming study to pay more attention on the problem of way and mechanism of the effect of income growth on the demand gap of passenger vehicle.2. Based on the monthly data from 2000 to 2007, eight years and 96 months, of 335 kinds of vehicle type and use average weighted index method, we construct the price index and then analyze the supply-demand situation of Chinese passenger vehicle which discovers the rule of price changing of passenger vehicle, reflecting the tendency of its price development. These conclusions provide a valuable reference for the coming study.3. We use the unbalanced econometric model and related data to analyze and portray the income effect on supply-demand structure which results in the demand gap. The measurement of demand gap lays a solid foundation for deep research of passenger vehicle market.4. The emergence of demand gap of passenger vehicle market enlarges the investment of production and more manufacturers to enter unceasingly. Measuring the conduct effect of demand gap provide theory support for the whether or not overheating argument of passenger vehicle market. This research has expanded the size and depth of correlation research of demand gap in Chinese passenger vehicle market with industrial economy growth which has certain practical significance and the reference value for comprehending the correlation between the development of Chinese passenger vehicle and industrial economy growth and analyzing the development tendency and policy mechanism.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods > Quantitative Economics
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