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System Dynamics Models of Coordinate Decision for Relief Resources

Author: WangZuo
Tutor: WangXuPing
School: Dalian University of Technology
Course: Systems Engineering
Keywords: Emergency Resource Coordination System Dynamics EarthquakeResponse Psychological Risk Perception Material Allocation
CLC: P315.9
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 137
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Recently, various natural disasters have been occurring more and more frequently and have brought huge damage to most of the country all over the world. Therefore emergency management researches on unconventional emergency and disaster have become hot issues in the management research field, and how to coordinate the emergency resources are key problems in this field. Rapid and reasonable coordinate decisions to relief resource after disasters are primary works of rescue process, which impact the effectiveness and efficiency of rescue response directly. However, it is still a hard issue that how to make emergency resource coordination decisions under highly uncertain operation conditions after disasters. This paper focuses on how to make emergency resource coordination decisions under dynamic operation environments in earthquake rescue response, takes example of ’5.12’ Wenchuan earthquake and uses the method of system dynamics (SD). The main contents of the study can be summarized as the following three aspects.1. Based on the analysis of research status of related fields, the trend and characteristic of disasters were studied. Then it was analyzed that the related issues of emergency resource coordination process, and summed up the construction principle of emergency resource allocation system, based on which the framework of the system was designed by using the system dynamics ideology.2. For the issues of rescue force allocate decision-making, by using the System Dynamics (SD) theory and taking the dynamic traffic conditions into consideration, a rescue decision model of earthquake was built to simulate how rescue operation works and to estimate the casualties and rescue effects. Then, two affected area of5.12Wenchuan earthquakes under different conditions were taken as simulating background to analyze the effect of rescue decision in different situations through simulation. It was proved that the model has a good definition in simulating the rescue process of large earthquake which intensity7to10and provided a certain reference value for the rescue decision-making in the actual case.3. By integrating the behavioral science theory into emergency supply chain researches, a SD model of earthquake emergency material allocate system was built which took the psychological perception of decision-makers into consideration. The decision-makers’ psychological risk perception in a secondary emergency supply chain was depicted with Prospect Theory, and the risk perception curve and function model were got out. Then it was studied that what impact of different decision-making attitude to the process of emergency material allocation, and we simulated the process by proposing a joint decision-making strategy.The food supplying of Wenchuan county in’5.12’Wenchuan earthquake was taken as an example to simulate the model, and the operation performance under different decision-making attitudes were analized.

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CLC: > Astronomy,Earth Sciences > Geophysics > Earth ( rock circles ) physics ( geophysics ) > Seismology > Engineering seismology
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