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Research on the Feasibility of Asset Prices as the Intermediate Target of Monetary Policy

Author: WangDanYang
Tutor: ZhangDongHui
School: Shandong University
Course: Western Economics
Keywords: Asset prices Macroeconomic stability Monetary Policy Feasibility
CLC: F293.3;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 85
Quote: 0
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Abstract


China's rapid economic growth, the rapid development of the financial markets, the international trend of financial markets, the monetary policy transmission mechanism and policy effectiveness under a huge change, at the same time due to the influence of asset prices in the economy is gradually increasing, scholars began The discuss whether asset prices can introduce a system of monetary policy, as well as the feasibility of the intermediate target of monetary policy. The article uses quarter 1998 quarter 2010 economic growth rate, inflation rate, real estate sales price index growth rate, the interest rate the rate of change of the growth rate of money supply growth rate of total credit VAR model, Granger test impulse response function analysis, and feasibility analysis in conjunction with Chapter 4, the following conclusions: (1) purely from the point of view of the empirical asset price movements in macroeconomic fundamentals have a certain impact, which in turn factors of change can also be reflected in the asset price fluctuations, fluctuations in asset prices, monetary policy also has a certain relationship, asset prices as a monetary policy intermediate target is theoretically feasible. But China's current economic development situation, the development of financial and capital markets immature, complex problems encountered in the economic development and diversification, asset price indicators is not strong enough, the empirical results show that can not achieve stability by regulating asset prices prices, and the purpose of promoting economic growth. Now is not the central bank asset prices into monetary policy, the best time of the target system. (2) asset prices can not be used as the intermediate target of monetary policy, but it contains some of the information required by the central bank to formulate policies, the central bank can refer to asset prices when setting monetary policy. The continuous rise in asset prices may make monetary fluidity quantity and structure of the money supply, which may induce dramatic changes in capital requirements from changes in the areas of production to non-production areas. In this case, the effect of monetary policy may be more for the asset markets absorbed the contrary, the actual impact on real economy sector is relatively weak. These are the monetary policy in the formulation of the need to pay special attention to the factors. (3) should respect the laws governing the operation of the capital markets, through the strengthening of the regulatory and institutional building to prevent the impact of asset price volatility, and should not directly intervene in asset prices through monetary policy. China's capital market is still in its early stage of development, the type and quantity of assets are small, all aspects of the trading system is not perfect, asset prices vulnerable to manipulation and asset bubbles, and should therefore be to increase the supply of financial products through financial innovation strengthen supervision to prevent insider trading, to regulate the trading behavior of investors, asset price volatility can truly reflect the changes in supply and demand fundamentals and macroeconomic changes, reduce the volatility of asset prices to prevent the formation of asset bubbles. (4) It should be noted that to prevent the impact of asset prices to financial institutions. In recent years, China's rate of return on capital is showing strong growth, significantly higher than the investment rate of return on capital opportunity cost. As the central bank, response time of risk factors in the economic and financial development to maintain higher vigilance and close monitoring of the flow of bank funds, Beware of credit funds into various asset markets, to guard against potential systemic financial risks for macroeconomic sustained and healthy development to create a favorable financial environment.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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