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Reverse Mortgage Loan in China: the Feasibility Study and Empirical Analysis

Author: DengTianLong
Tutor: HongGuoBin
School: Huaqiao University
Course: Financial
Keywords: Reverse Mortgage Loan Feasibility Product Pricing Monte Carlo Simulation
CLC: F832.45
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 3
Quote: 0
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Abstract


With the global trends in population aging, Reverse Mortgage Loan hasappeared as a new financial tool, to improve the wellbeing of the old and easetheir pressure in old age. In United States, Reverse Mortgage Loan hasbecome an important part of social insurance systems of old-age, and hasshowed its social effect. Chinese scholars have being thinking about thepossibility to bring in this mortgage, since the1990s. In terms ofgovernment’s work, China’s Bank Regulatory Commission conducted aprofessional investigation. The result, however, was not positive--it is notadvisable to support the old-age by home mortgage, because the period ofhousing property is only70years in China. Why situation is different in China?Why there are many experts still encouraging the development of ReverseMortgage Loan?Based on the characteristics and operation system of Reverse MortgageLoan, this thesis aims to analyze the possibility and Applicability ofpromoting Reverse Mortgage Loan in China. In terms of pricing models, thisthesis also revised the Actuarial Pricing Model of insurance products and itsparameters, based on three fundamental pricing models from China and theabroad, to improve the veracity of product pricing. In the end, the changes ofShanghai’s lending rate and housing price were simulated sufficiently, usingMonte Carlo Simulation. The pricing result showed that Reverse MortgageLoan can improve the level of Shanghai retired residents’ income, and protecttheir quality of life after retirement. Meanwhile, we also find that both lumpsum payments and annuity payments are sensitive to the changes of lendingrate and housing price, which will have important practical significance for usto develop Reverse Mortgage Loan in the future.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Credit > Real estate credit
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