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Theoretical and Empirical Study of the Relationship between Foreign Exchange Reserves and Inflation in China

Author: DuMengZuo
Tutor: HuangKaiNan
School: Shandong University
Course: Finance
Keywords: Foreign exchange reserves Inflation Cointegration test Error correction model
CLC: F822.5;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 279
Quote: 1
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Abstract


In 1994 , China carried out the reform of the exchange rate regime , along with the increasing openness of China's international balance of payments for many years there was surplus and foreign currency reserves are growing year by year , and the growth rate has been improving . As of the end of 2010 , China 's foreign exchange reserves has accelerated rise to $ 2.84 trillion , another single country holds the history of the Exchange total . Moderate foreign exchange reserves can guarantee the security and stability of a country's exchange rate system , and enhance the country's external payment capability , but also enhance the comprehensive strength of a country . However , an excessive amount of foreign exchange reserves, but no benefit from the internal economic regulation , the People's Bank of China , the need for a stable exchange rate , must passively acquired from the foreign exchange market, foreign exchange, and with base money , and then bring the price upward pressure on . Economics theory , econometrics tools , a causal relationship between China's foreign exchange reserves to the extent of the impact of inflation and both qualitative and quantitative analysis . This paper first analyzes the changes and the reasons for China 's foreign exchange reserves and inflation systems , then theoretically analyzed the growth of foreign exchange reserves of the inflation mechanism , namely : the balance of payments surplus → net foreign assets the ↑ → foreign exchange reserves ↑ → foreign exchange accounting models ↑ → ↑ → money supply of base money the ↑ → inflationary pressures ↑ rising prices , data display and theoretical analysis on the change in foreign exchange reserves and inflation - consistency , then this paper 2001 -2010 economic data , from the point of view of the empirical analysis demonstrated that the increase in China's foreign exchange reserves will indeed produce significant inflationary effects . Pull effect of inflation in the long run , foreign exchange reserves 0.030712 , Phase 3 have a significant positive effect on inflation in the short term increase in foreign exchange reserves in the front , and this effect has long sustained impact . In addition , the article also found great evoked China's rapid economic growth and inflation . In order to ease inflationary pressures brought about by the foreign exchange reserves grew in the final to investigate a series of targeted measures : to deepen the reform of the foreign exchange management system , improve the foreign exchange write-off policy , adjust the economic development strategy of balance of international payments .

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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