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Empirical Research on the Influence of the Rmb Real Exchange Rate Changes on USA-China Trade DeficitsRespective

Author: WangNa
Tutor: ZouZuo
School: Xiangtan University
Course: Finance
Keywords: Real Exchange Rate U.S. trade deficit SITC classification Comparative advantage
CLC: F752.7;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 102
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Trade friction between the two countries since the 2007 financial crisis , the huge trade deficits the United States and led to escalation , the United States is trying to label China a currency manipulator , and preached in the domestic RMB appreciation ' ; However, the appreciation of the renminbi really be able to resolve the US- trade deficit problem? paper, the 1996-2010 RMB real exchange rate movements and the US-China trade monthly data , using the ADF test , cointegration and Granger causality test measurement methods , changes in the real exchange rate of the RMB and the U.S. trade deficit with the total amount and structure of empirical analysis of the relationship of the deficit and causes , draw the following three important conclusions : (1) Empirical Analysis of monthly data for 1996-2010 show that changes in the real exchange rate of the RMB is not a US-China trade deficit widened in long-term reasons . ( 2) the empirical analysis of the monthly data from July 2005 to 2010 show that the long-term stability of the cointegration relationship between changes in the real exchange rate of RMB and the U.S. trade deficit , but did not pass the Granger causality test , so there is no evidence to support the RMB changes in the real exchange rate is the real reason for the US-China trade deficit widened . (3) The U.S. trade deficit is mainly concentrated in raw materials manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles of labor-intensive products and resources consumable products . The conclusions of these studies strongly refuted a mistaken view of the appreciation of the renminbi ' . However, for the enlargement of the U.S. trade deficit , we have to make the interpretation of the following four points : first, the comparative advantage of the decision US trade patterns ; Second, a large number of industrial transfer to China to increase the U.S. trade deficit ; Third U.S. net positive investment to increase the U.S. trade deficit ; fourth U.S. restrictions on exports of high-tech products to reduce U.S. exports to China . Therefore, we believe that China and the United States must play against the respective comparative advantages , and further optimize the structure of trade , and to encourage freedom of trade , in order to achieve the balance of trade between the two sides .

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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