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The Study on the Change of Contemporary Labor Force Participation Levels and Patterns

Author: Bai
Tutor: YinWenYao
School: Zhejiang University
Course: Demographic
Keywords: labor force participation rate labor force participation pattern labor force participation change
CLC: F249.2
Type: PhD thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 162
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Abstract


The modern demographic transitions and economic restructures were taken as the backgrounds in the paper. The occasional changes in short-term were skipped and the accidental disturbances were got rid of as well. The author analyzed the long-term trends on labor force participation (LFP) levels and patterns by science of history and strategy. Furthermore, it was evaluated that the place and role of modern economic and technological progress, science and technology education, population change are on LFP levels and patterns. The studies might be contributive to thorough insights into the regular patterns of labor and employment and to rational treatments on issues of labor and employment followed the economic growth.Taken labor force participation rates (LFPR) as core indicators and based on the data published by the International Labor Organization (ILO) and the United Nations (UN), the author defined the LFP pattern and established the indicator system for the description on the changes of LFP patterns. The author analyzed the features of changes on the levels and patterns of the LFPR from 1950 to 2003 and generalized the changes of patterns by sex. Meanwhile, by using STATA panel data model and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with AMOS for analyzing the influence factors of the changes of LFP levels and patterns by sex, this paper revealed the fundamental causes impacted on changes of LFP patterns and the differences of influences among various factors on sex or age groups.The main innovation of the paper is the hypothesis on the changes of LFP, in which the key points are as followed:The changes of LFP include the transitions on levels and patterns with the main features of differences at sex and age. The basic feature of the transitions are the tendency to continuously shorten the time of LFP and to continuously extend the time on learning and on free individual development. The process could briefly be summarized into four stages by years as of now. The short-term economic fluctuations and social unrests couldn’t fundamentally change the pattern of LFP in long-term trend. The education, LFPR in 15-19 year-age group and the structure of population age could influence the changes of LFP significantly instead of economic factor as the direct element among the factors. The 15-19 year-age and 20-24 year-age groups have significant effects upon the amount of labor supply for the extension on the period of education and the decline in LFPR. On the other hand, the situation contributes to the premise of retirement age rise in which the rate of labor force participation keeps in high level in the 25-59 year-age group and raises in 60-64 year-age group. It would play a fundamental role on the rise of labor supply and on the demand for labor in new economy, new industries and new era to strengthen the construction of the learning society, to lower the LFPR but to extend the period of education in the 15-19 and 20-24 year-age groups, and to increase the penetration rate of education and to improve the quality of labor supply.The study on LFP levels and patterns, moreover the master of the general rules and trend on LFP level as well as the change of contrastive correlations on the quantities by sex and age would contribute to the understanding on the stages of regional LFP; to the certainty for the situation of regional labor supply; to the comprehension upon the effects of various factors on labor supply; to the scientific predictions at the amount, quality, age or sex of labor supply; to the perspective and foresight on employment and to the balance between labor supply and demand.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Labor Economics > Countries in the world of labor economic profile > China
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