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Study on sustained performance of stock mutual funds in China

Author: HuBo
Tutor: XieWeiAn
School: Fudan University
Course: Finance
Keywords: performance persistence GEM manager performance
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 124
Quote: 0
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Abstract


China’s open-end securities investment funds has been developed nearly12years, the performance of the Fund is increasingly popular with investors, regulators, trust and the fund managers themselves. The performance persistence of the fund is one of the most important study focuses. Performance persistence shows the return of the fund is not randomly distributed, and the good performance is willing to persist while the bad one continues to fail. Whether the fund’s performance persist is not only concerned in academia, but also in practice as an investment strategy, information disclosure and the need for the manager’s own performance evaluation on the basis of the extensive attention.In this paper, risk-adjusted excess returns is treated as a performance evaluation benchmark under the framework of asset pricing theory. The performance persistence tests use parametric methods and non-parametric methods on the two subjects of fund itself in the short term and fund managers in the long run.For the short-term persistence test, the paper uses the traditional methodology of regressing the excess return with one-period lagging return as well as the ARMA model. Results show that not only the short-term fund performance does not persist, but the average weight return of the funds’performance persistence does not exist as well. For the long-term persistence test, the performance of the fund manager is achieved by the transform of the fund performance, tested by the Z test of the cross product and chi-test. Result shows that the long-term persistence does not exist excepting for two or three individual years, and test results differently on the data arrangement. The fund performance is not significantly affected by the changes of the managers. This paper also takes into account the stock market of the GEM which may affect fund performance. Tests show that the majority of funds are affected by the one-way causal impact of GEM market premium. The paper finally tests the persistence of hybrid pooled asset management Product Performance which has similar characteristics with investment fund management, and the result shows that the product also has no persistence, although it differs with some own attribution.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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