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Dynamic Simulation Research on Coal Project Economic Evaluation System Based on System Dynamics

Author: ZuoYan
Tutor: WangZhiHong
School: Liaoning Technical University
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: System Dynamics Economic Evaluation Coal Project Dynamic Simulation
CLC: F426.21
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 154
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Coal has been our main energy and important raw material, it plays an important strategic role in the development of national economy. The main energy status of coal will last for a long time, the total demand will continue to increase. National coal working meeting opened in November, 2010 put forward that the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period is an important period to construct the new coal industry system, and realize the healthy development of the coal industry. Coal construction projects play an extremely vital role in our country’s modernization construction. Therefore, the project’s economic rationality should be analysed before investment, which provides scientific basis for decision maker to make the right decision.Coal project economic evaluation involves numerous factors, the connections among factors is complex,dynamic and nonlinear. When one factor of the system changes, it would cause global changes. The traditional method of preparing financial statements is difficult to predict the impact. System dynamics has originality to analyze this kind of complex system problems, it also provides a "strategic policy laboratory" for coal project, which can compare different project schemes. Therefore, system dynamics applied in coal project economic evaluation will realize dynamic simulation for coal project economic evaluation system, analyse and predict the financial viability, and provide support for investment decision.Coal project economic evaluation system dynamics model has been established applying system dynamics. Taking a strip mine project for example, its future operational situation is simulated, the profitability and solvency of the project are analyzed, and the economic rationality is evaluated. Then a sensitivity analysis and scene analysis are carried, analysing the key factors influencing project’s financial viability. The superiority of the system dynamics is confirmed, aiming at providing a new system analysis method for coal project investment decision.

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