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Research on the Location of Coastal Import Coal Reserve Bases

Author: ZhengZuo
Tutor: XiaoQing
School: Dalian Maritime University
Course: Traffic and Transportation Engineering
Keywords: Import Coal Reserves Location analysis Dctermination of rcasonablescale Fuzzy Optimization Model Variable Precision Rough Set
CLC: F752.61
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 70
Quote: 0
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Abstract


China’s coal supply and demand appeared department in the current situation. In the eastern region, especially in the southeast coastal areas where economic and industrial development speed, coal demand is relatively strong but coal production of these coastal provinces is very low. Coal need transferred from other provinces to these areas. The proportion of import coal in this huge amount transferred is rising and rising. Import coal has become an important force to ensure safe and reliable supply of coal for China’s coastal areas. Meanwhile, the international sea freight has decreased volatility lead to the increasing facilitation of import coal trade. Compared to domestic coal what subjects to various factors, imported coal has obvious comparative ascendancy. Thus, exploring the import coal reserves of China’s coastal areas plays an important role for sustained and stable operation in these areas.Firstly in this paper, we analysis the factors such as national economy, industrial structure, energy structure which impacts coal demand with Co-integration Theory and predicts the model of China’s coal demand based on the Co-integration Theory. The model is used to predict the coal demand for China and make predictions for China’s coastal areas import coal demand in the future based on the average proportion in recent years what coal imports accounted for the total demand coal. And then we can use the model to provide basis for the proportion of import coal reserve base of China’s coastal areas.Secondly, we predict a location model of import coal reserve base based on Fuzzy Optimization. Because of the urgent needs of southeast coastal areas, in East China and South China mainly, we choose Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, Shanghai Port, Lianyungang Port, Guangzhou Port, Fangcheng Port, Zhuhai Port as the alternative address of coastal import coal reserve base. Then we build multi-level evaluation index system and analysis each option based on Fuzzy Optimization to choose the preferred sequence of these options.Finally, we analysis the factors that affects the scale of coal reserves, which learns the relevant experience of strategic oil reserves. Then we build the decision of import coal reserves proportion to provide a workable idea and solution for the determination of reasonable coastal import coal reserve scale in our country.

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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > States foreign trade > China's foreign trade > Import and Export Trade Overview > Imports
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