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Research on R&D Cost Forecast of High Technology Corporate Based on System Dynamic Theory

Author: ChenHuiMing
Tutor: XuLu
School: Harbin University of Commerce
Course: Accounting
Keywords: High technology System dynamics R&D cost forecast
CLC: F276.44;F275.3
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
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Abstract


Our country plans to set up an innovative country, it is necessary to constantly strive to improve the level of R&D for enterprises, create a batch of the products of high science and technology. Research and development activities are becoming increasingly significant in today of rapid development of science and technology as dynamic of the development of high technology enterprises and development cost prediction is also becoming more and more important.The study is supported by technology innovation theory, human resources theory and system theory. According to the complexity, nonlinearity and time-varying characteristics of high technology enterprises, research and development cost prediction of high technology enterprises is regarded as a system which consists of research and development ability, life cycle, cost prediction method, amplification of new products and technology and external environment subsystems. According to the characteristics and influencing factors of each subsystem, we are targeted to design the evaluation index of each subsystem. According to the relationship between the index of each subsystem, we design causal diagram of each subsystem respectively, On this basis, we synthesize each subsystem, design flow chart of research and development cost prediction system of high technology enterprises and set up system dynamics model. Applying to VENSIM software and constructed system dynamics model of research and development cost prediction system of high technology enterprises, we analyze the actual cases, test fitting level of model, analyze result combined with case and put forward feasible improvement measures of enterprise research and development cost prediction. we apply system dynamics to high technology enterprises which is able to change the idea of enterprises prediction of research and development cost, makes high technology enterprise pay more attention to research and development cost prediction and can use scientific and effective method to predict research and development cost. It benefits high technology enterprise to improve the accuracy of research and development cost prediction, improves the efficiency of decision making and enhances core competitiveness.We predict R&D cost of high technology enterprises applying to dynamics method which Not only helps to improve the current situation of R&D cost of high tech enterprises, promotes the ability and accuracy of enterprises R&D cost prediction, enhances the activity efficiency of enterprise R&D,but also is in favor of the development of R&D cost prediction theory and enrich the theory of cost management to a certain extent.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Enterprise economy > Corporate Financial Management > Enterprise Cost Management
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