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Research on the Fluctuation and Forecast of World Tanker Demolitions

Author: WangWeiWei
Tutor: ZhaoJinLou
School: Harbin Engineering University
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Tanker Demolitions Fluctuation Grey Topology prediction model Forecast
CLC: F416.474
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 39
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Ship recycling industry, as a typical resource environmental protection industry and with a vast prospect, is one of the important parts of circulating economy. In recent years, various shipbuilding countries are competing to increase their investment in ship recycling industry, and pay more attention to the development of the world’s ship recycling industry. Tanker demolitions are the most important indicators to measure the market trend of tanker recycling industry, which best reflect the level of ship recycling market activity. Thus, if you want to observe the world developmental situation of the tanker recycling industry, we must master the fluctuation situation of tanker demolitions.The purpose of this paper are analyzing fluctuant characteristics and influential factors on fluctuations, which are based on long-span data and the approach of complicated and large systems, in order to find causes of abnormal fluctuations about tanker demolitions and predict the future fluctuations of this situation in three years as well as the trend of parameter values. With regards to this, firstly this paper briefly describes the tanker and the constitution of demolitions, and presents six demolition fluctuation parameters which describe the fluctuation characteristics as well as influential factors on fluctuations. Secondly, briefly expounds forming general mechanism of the fluctuation, and utilizes fluctuation parameters to describe the fluctuation characteristics of demolition in detail according to the fluctuation curve of all ship’s demolitions. On this basis, it deeply analyzes the use reason of point or segment of the abnormal fluctuations. Finally, we make the use of Topology prediction model of Grey system prediction to predict tanker demolitions.There are several important conclusions in this paper:first, the fluctuations tanker demolitions are general violent, amplitudes of fluctuation are much higher, fluctuations regularities are not obvious; second, supply and demand factors, and other factors such as international norms, psychologies of ship-owner, are the major factors in the fluctuations tanker demolitions; third, when we use Topology prediction model of Grey system prediction to predict tanker demolitions, we find that fitting accuracy is much more than 90%. This suggests that Topology prediction method in fluctuations of tanker demolitions is reasonable and feasible.In addition, according to the future trends of the demolitions, this paper puts forward a few comments and suggestions for the development of China’s tanker recycling industry. Thus, it provides a theoretical guide for management decision of China’s ship recycling industry, while it also has a certain reference to the development of relevant industries.

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CLC: > Economic > Industrial economy > The world's industrial economy > Industrial sector economy > Metal processing and machinery industry > Transportation machinery industry > Shipping
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