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The Study of Coupled Hydrologic and Atmospheric Modeling Based on WRF Used in the Three Gorges Reservoir and the Design&Application of Short Term Forecasting System

Author: JiaMeng
Tutor: ZhouJianZhong
School: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Course: Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
Keywords: Three Gorges Reservoir WRF model TS score VIC distributed hydrological model coupled hydrologic and atmospheric modeling
CLC: P338
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 12
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Abstract


The Three Gorges Reservoir dispatch considers flood control, power generation,water supply, navigation, ecology and other aspects, and the accurate dispatch needs hightemporal and spatial resolution and high accuracy of precipitation forecast informationwithin a certain period of time in the future. In order to improve forecast accuracy andforecast period of the inflow, it is very significant to the development of a rational andefficient reservoir regulation scheme, by improving the accuracy of precipitation forecast,providing some foreseeable period of precipitation information to drive inflow forecastingmodel.To achieve high-precision short-term inflow forecast of Three Gorges Reservoir, aswell as to extend the forecast period, selects the Three Gorges reservoir area as theanalysis area, applies WRFV3.3as a short-term weather forecasting system of the ThreeGorges Reservoir Area, and uses of TS scores and range analysis to analyze WRFV3.3parameterization scheme sensitivity to determine the most suitable combination of WRFmodel parameterization scheme of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on that,through the one-way coupling, coupling VIC distributed hydrological model andWRFV3.3for forecasting. The case results show that the model prediction method is moreeffective and has certain practical. The system has been successfully deployed and appliedin the Three Gorges dispatching center.As WRF-VIC coupled hydrologic and atmospheric modeling research applied to theThree Gorges Project to meet the needs of the production units of work to improve theaccuracy of short-term hydrological forecasting and extended forecast period, the researchdesigns and develops the coupled hydrologic and atmospheric modeling short-termforecasting system of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. The model of the system betweenthe various disciplines comprehensively relates to compile the pattern, thehigh-performance computing, data storage, the hydrometeorological data query and dealwith weather situation map query functions. The core of the system module WRF model applies SSH communication mechanism with mpich2which is the parallel compilersoftware, stand-alone multi-core parallel compilation on the HP Z800Workstation,significantly increases the run rate, and helps extend hydrological forecasting forecastperiod. Hydro-meteorological information query module achieves real-time query andmanagement functions of the hydro-meteorological data such as precipitation, runoff,evaporation and temperature, and lightweight database MySQL achieves efficient updatesand query management function of the hydro-meteorological data. At the same time, thesystem uses NCL language mapping of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area weather forecastsituation, and by the client for the user in real-time call analysis, allowing users moreconvenient to make the appropriate decisions for runoff forecasting of the Three GorgesReservoir Area, as the Three Gorges Reservoir cascade flood generation schedulingsystem provides good data graphics support.

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CLC: > Astronomy,Earth Sciences > Geophysics > Hydrological Sciences (water sector physics) > Hydrological forecasting
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