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Energy in socio-economic development an important factor, the world key areasof concern in the future, occupies a pivotal role in the country’s economicdevelopment process, and even a source of future economic development ofcountries in the world, there is no energy, the economy will be unable to Others.Worldwide energy supply and demand issues facing a severe test, where coal in theglobal energy occupies a pivotal position. Since the founding of our reform andopening up, the industry is developing rapidly, rapid growth in demand for energy, isalso facing more and more obvious energy energy supply and demand issues.According to the current development trend, the petroleum win instead of coal in theenergy industry, in the first place, but the presence of oil reserves and is a factorwhich the depleting trend is very clear, then the coal distribution of the most wide,the largest energy savings, seven degree of importance is self-evident. In particular,the development of coal purification, clean, efficient use of technology. Theimportant role of coal has been sustained, it must be one of the most importantenergy future.The status quo of China’s current energy is a lack of oil, less gas, rich in coal ", alarge number of coal reserves decision coal must be the most important source ofenergy in China, accounted for almost60%of the energy consumption structure, canbe said that China’s energy security depends on coal energy. Occupies a strategicposition for the development of the national economy. Yunnan Province insouthwest China, the development of the western provinces, also the energyprovince, economic province, one-time energy coal reserves amount box singleobjective, widely distributed, large-scale distribution of important mines in easternYunnan, western There are many important coal. But rich in coal, less gas, lack ofoil and energy characteristics are very prominent. Resource structure is not balanced.Hydropower resources in Yunnan Province is the country ranked second place, but is no substitute for Yunnan hydropower runoff, and thermal power load shiftingfunction. Has proven reserves of coal resources in Yunnan Province, more than70%of the the Tertiary sedimentary low-calorie lignite reserves (ranking first in thecountry), widely distributed buried in shallow coal seam thickness, high moisture,high calorific value low, the exploitation of low value. Coal varieties in YunnanProvince, the largest lignite reserves, amounting to15.45billion tons, accounting for66%of the province to maintain reserves. Coal is only about27.46%of thehigh-quality coal, the output value of7.57billion tons. So then the energy use of theabove is still very important. In position above the ground, next to Myanmar, Laos,Vietnam, the implementation of the bridgehead policy and promotion, makingfrequent economic exchanges with the dual role of the economic and political, ofobvious importance of energy planning forecasts.In recent years, in order to seek solutions to the challenges of global warming,"low carbon economy" has become the buzzword of the international community tostudy global warming countermeasures."Carbon" referring specifically to theburning of coal and other fossil energy produced by burning C02gas [1]. A keyresearch project for the study of low-carbon economy to a large extent associatedwith the application of supply and demand of coal, coal market supply and demand.The lack of energy is a major research topic facing the world, how reasonablemaximum use of coal energy, so that future generations can better survival, are theproblems we face, it is very important to study the supply and demand of coal andthe future development of. That is, how to make scientific and effective coal energyforecasting planning challenges facing worldwide. Therefore, to study the coalenergy market supply and demand is essential for a country or region, it is possibleto accurately predict the the regional coal energy demand and supply and demandrelationship, for scientific and rational analysis, in order to effectively be able toenergy development plan in order to better ensure the sustainable economicdevelopment of the region.Coal as the transport of bulk materials, the main mode of transport railway, the cheapest way to water transport, in this way, Yunnan shall have no advantage.Yunnan Province in the national railway network in the end, the waterway but do nothave the Linhai objective conditions. The current situation of the development ofcoal industry in Yunnan Province, the supply and demand balance, due to theregional distribution of resources reserves and the level of exploitation of limited andother restrictions, Yunnan coal development in a healthy condition, small coal toosmall and cluttered, mining level is not high, the regional control needs to bestrengthened, and a series of problems, some impact to the economic development.The government’s macro-control, a series of regulations and policies out, theconstraints of the market mechanism without delay, although the government has seta lot of relevant regulations policies, but the scientific coal demand and supplyforecast able to give the government the right decisions. This is why we study wherethe purpose of the coal supply and demand.The main object of the study is that the coal supply and demand in YunnanProvince, in the context of the case, analysis of Yunnan Province, the coal town ofSouth Gate demand and aggregate supply on the basis of a combination ofqualitative and quantitative modeling of Yunnan Province in2020coal demand andsupply forecast, and the analysis of the relationship between supply and demand tosee the gap between supply and demand factors, and make recommendationsaccordingly. Provide the fundamental basis for the scientific forecast of the coalsupply and demand in Yunnan Province, Yunnan Province to develop medium-andlong-term coal and energy development strategy to ensure energy security forsustainable development of coal resources in Yunnan Province, the construction ofsocio-economic goals have important practical significance.Firstly, energy, coal energy concepts and classifications defined. Analysis ofthe current situation of Yunnan coal supply and demand and its influencing factors,the analysis of the structure of energy supply in Yunnan Province. Including coalresources, mining structure and size, large-scale coal enterprises put into operation,Yunnan coal demand market environment, the structure of demand and trends. Analysis of the Yunnan Province imbalance of supply and demand factors andreasons, do analysis pave the way for the subsequent coal forecast.Then outlines the basic principles of energy forecasting methods throughresearch and analysis of the Yunnan Province in2000-2012Energy Yearbook data,by Eviews analysis software for data reliability test, and apply the VAR model inYunnan Province in2020, demand for coal and supply forecast predicted results fitat the same time by the ARMA model to improve the accuracy of prediction.Finally, predicted by the model, derived Yunnan Province, the total coal demand is178.9748million tons of raw coal, total coal production capacity of163,234,500tons of raw coal, a certain gap between supply and demand, the supply and demandbalance of15,740,300tons of raw coal demand in the next few years, but slightlylarger than the requirements, but the overall growth rate is not high, and the gap isnot great, not constraints on the economy. At the conclusion of this study, presentedcertain recommendations. Want to be able to play a corresponding role in theformulation of government policies.
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