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Theory and Empirical Study on the City Development of Low Carbon

Author: ZhangZhengHua
Tutor: PengDiYun
School: Nanchang University
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: the construction of ecological civilization city low-carbondevelopment carbon emission reduction rate variable fundamental in-tree establishedmodel method based on the feedback basic mode analysis
CLC: X321
Type: PhD thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 1334
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Abstract


Climate change which takes global warming as the main feature has become one of the most far-reaching global environmental problems right now. In2007, the United Nations intergovernmental committee of experts on climate change (IPCC) published Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) notes:Global warming,90%may due to human activities as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases. China as a greenhouse gas-emitting countries and responsible big country, committed to2020, per unit of GDP CO2emissions decreased by40%-45%than in2005. City is the center of the national economy and social development of our country, as well as the main source of greenhouse gas emissions, those in response to climate change and greenhouse gas emission reduction plays a decisive role. Low carbon city development is the only way which must be passed the national implementation of low carbon that is the route one must take, and city sustainable development and ecological civilization construction. Nanchang is the national first batch of low carbon pilot cities, the only provincial capital in central cities, also the early idea of low carbon city. Therefore, Nanchang as the sample research of low carbon city development has important theoretical significance and practical significance.Based on the basic theory such as sustainable development, feedback basic mode analysis, rate variable fundamental in-tree established model method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), data envelopment analysis (DEA) and other methods are adopted in this dissertation to define the connotation and denotation of low-carbon city, to comb the opportunities and challenges facing in China, to summarize the low carbon development model of different city at home and abroad, to establish the city carbon emission measurement system which is used to measurement and analysis on Nanchang, with an emphasis on industrial carbon emissions measurement and performance analysis. On that basis and the feedback basic mode, the dissertation builds rate variable fundamental in-tree established model method to set Nanchang2020carbon reduction target and direction through the method of simulation, so as to clear carbon reduction path and related measures by the same token. In this dissertation, the structure is divided into10chapters. Among them, chapter1is introduction, chapter2is literature review and theoretical basis, chapter3for low-carbon city connotation and denotation, chapter4for low carbon city development study practice, chapter5for the urban carbon emissions measurement and analysis, chapter6for the determination of urban carbon emissions reduction targets, chapter7for low carbon city leading industry choice, chapter8for Nanchang city low carbon development path, chapter9for Nanchang city low carbon development safeguard measures, chapter10is conclusion and prospect. In addition to the introduction, conclusion and prospect, this thesis is divided into four parts:First, defines the connotation and denotation of low-carbon city, summarizes the domestic and foreign city low-carbon development mode.City of low carbon development should take the sustainable development theory, ecological economy theory, energy economics theory, system theory and the theory of government intervention as a guide. It is to achieve a low-carbon city goal. Low-carbon city is in the protection of urban economic growth momentum remains unchanged, under the premise of urban residents should improve living standards, the fossil energy consumption and carbon greenhouse gas emissions at a relatively low level of the city. This city has the phase, economy, system, quantitative characteristics. The core content of low carbon city include low carbon city planning, low carbon industry, low carbon energy, low carbon transport, low carbon buildings etc. Reviewing low carbon development in foreign city, climatic driving is the background, the data in advance is the foundation, the global coalition is its platform, promote its path. While most cities in our country are still in the process of urbanization, industrialization, low-carbon development choice comes from industries and key areas in industry.Second, urban carbon emissions measurement system is established, on the city and industry level of analysis has been made for the carbon emissions.Based on the IPCC (2006) establishment system of greenhouse gas inventories, mainly in the production mode, supplemented by consumption patterns, from energy activities, industrial processes, agriculture, land use change and forestry, waste disposal five units built a city carbon emission measurement system, calculating and analyzing of Nanchang city carbon emissions. Industry is the main source of Nanchang carbon emissions, further calculated on industrial carbon emissions, and with the inputs of capital, labor, energy, the output of industrial and CO2, using the data envelopment analysis (DEA), to calculate the Nanchang City Industrial Mann Qwest carbon emissions performance index, one of the leading industry evaluation index system of low-carbon city.Third, build a low carbon city development system rate variable fundamental in-tree established model method, the urban carbon emissions reduction targets and direction is determined.The determination of the flow-bit variable, feedback basic mode qualitative analysis and rate variable fundamental in-tree established model method quantitative analysis carried out an organic combination for the first time, build the fundamental mode analysis based on the feedback basic mode of rate variable fundamental in-tree established model method. The method is applied to simulation and analysis of control parameter on the development of low-carbon city, Nanchang, whose carbon reduction targets of47%, in2020. And clearly the key direction of the carbon emissions in order to optimize the industrial structure, optimize energy structure, reduce the unit GDP energy consumption, reduce carbon emissions by unit energy, advocating low carbon life, increase the amount of carbon sinks. Based on the above six directions, to further clarify Nanchang low-carbon development path should be expand from industry and urban two levels.Fourth, construct the low carbon city of leading industry selection model, puts forward the countermeasures of city low carbon development measures and safeguard measures.From the level of industry, Nanchang low-carbon development path should be driven by low-carbon leading industries industrial structure optimization. Therefore, based on the connotation of low carbon cities and low-carbon industries, establish the efficiency of choosing the leading industry in low carbon industry benchmark, industry potential datum, the industrial connection datum and industry benchmark, using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to constructed the13indicators city low-carbon leading industries selection model, and makes an empirical study of manufacturing and service industry of Nanchang. From the level of City, Nanchang low carbon development path should be develop low-carbon energy, low carbon traffic, promote the low carbon building, strengthening of low-carbon technology research and development, advocate low carbon life and increase forest carbon sink, and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures. System security, technical security, personnel security, fiscal security, financial security, mechanisms to protect and organizational guarantee for the smooth implementation of the above measures should be strengthened.This dissertation based on the connotation of low carbon city and extension, with Nanchang City as a sample, carbon emissions measurement system was established, build the fundamental mode analysis based on the feedback basic mode of rate variable fundamental in-tree established model method. Nanchang2020carbon reduction target and direction is clear, carbon reduction path and related measures by the same token, through the method of simulation. Determined above carbon reduction and low carbon development measures have reference and promotion significance for low carbon development of other city.

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