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Construct and Applied Research on CGE Model of Ecological Land in Jiayuguan City

Author: YangYanPing
Tutor: WuJunNian
School: Lanzhou University
Course: Environmental Engineering
Keywords: GeneralEquilibriumTheory ComputableGeneralEquilibrium mode(CGE) ecological land Jiayuguan City
CLC: X321
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 76
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Abstract


Land is the most fundamental material for the survival and development of human society, which is the important carrier of the various economic social activities.As the main components of land, the ecological land is responsible for crucial mission of maintaining the ecosystem stability.With the continuous change of economic, ecological land has shown new dynamic changes in total quantity and structure. Recently, research on the ecological land just concerned on the structure, planning, evaluation and protection. However the research on ecological land from view of the perspective development of economic was less. Based on economic indicators, the prediction of ecological land and the quantitative relationship of the economic indicators and the ecological land was desired, which could provide a theoretical guidance for planning of land use and harmonious development of economic ecological.In this paper, based on General Equilibrium Theory and Ecosystem Services, via compiling Social Accounting Matrix of the ecological land in Jiayuguan City computable CGE model, which includes ecological land account, is established and is used for analyzing the change of ecological land-use (2007as the base year) of Jiayuguan city next10years. Meanwhile, under the technology support of RS (Remote Sensing) and GIS (Geographic Information System), the study analyzed the present situation of land use in Jiayuguan city from2007to2012and use GIS data to verify this model, which aims to guarantee the model is suitable. CGE models can be used to display a preliminary analysis of ecological land use change.The results show that with economic indicators of Jiayuguan City change, the total ecological land of Jiayuguan City will reach11,605.93hectares at2017,namely accounting for approximately9.48%of Jiayuguan City area. Ecological land is relatively higher than other cities of Gansu province34%.It indicates that the ecological land is deficient and per capita are395.30m2. The output value of ecological land will reach23.3803million yuan, the average output will reach20,100yuan/ha as well. The cost of arrangement of ecological land is71.9986million yuan, the output of ecological land is3.25times than the cost of arrangement of it, the benefits of ecological is significant. The research also implys that woodlands, waters and wetlands area, which have ecological functions more significant, will increase and garden,grassland area will decrease at the end of2017. By analyzing Correlation coefficient, It is found that correlation coefficient between the use of ecological land and various economic indicators is higher. Forest, water and wetlands are positively correlated with economic development indicators, especially correlation coefficient is about0.9for woodland.However, the garden and a lawn are negatively correlated with economic development indicators.According to the predict and the analysis of result, the following suggestions is proposed:ecological land should be taken into land-use Classification. Improving the compensation of ecological land and modifying legal system, giving full play to the multiple functions of land to expand the ecological space. The study also provides theoretical guidance for land use planning of Jiayuguan City and ecological land protection.The established ecological land CGE model expands research ideas for ecological land use and economic development coordination and also provide a experence for other related fields in future.

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CLC: > Environmental science, safety science > Administration of Environmental Protection > Environmental planning and environmental management > Regional environmental planning and management
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