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Study on prediction model of Yantai port marine products cold chain logistics demand

Author: HaoYuJing
Tutor: LiGuiChun
School: Tianjin Normal University
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: seafood cold chain logistics gray correlation analysis demandforecasting model
CLC: F552.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 0
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The economic is developing rapidly, the social is progressive, and the people’s consumption concept is gradually converted from single, traditional, quantitative into diverse, modern and quality-oriented. Because the delicious taste, hyperalimentation and low calorie, seafood are considered as healthy products, which are well pursued and loved by consumers. The proportion of seafood consumption is raising day by day. With the improvement of people’s food safety consciousness and the pursuit of high quality life, the demand and requirement for seafood cold chain logistics is increasing year by year. The "heat" period for seafood cold chain logistics is coming.On the basis of widely read and comprehensive analysis of research status at home and abroad about food cold chain logistics and cold chain logistics needs, the research questions, ideas and method on cold chain logistics are proposed. It’s necessary to study the seafood cold chain logistics in view of the development situation and urgency demand in Yantai Port. The research process is reflected through two main aspects:analyzing the impact of the seafood cold chain logistics demand indicators; screening the demand indicators by appropriate quantitative analysis method and building the research model.According to the above two main aspects, the selecting principle of seafood cold chain logistics demand evaluation index is determined. Meanwhile, a reasonable evaluation index system is summed up based on the selecting principle and references. For example, product factor, the economic environment, humanity factor, the scale of logistics demand and cold chain logistics indicators. The data between2003and2012are collected by Yantai City Statistical Yearbook. On this basis, the further methods about gray correlation analysis and multiple linear regression forecasting model are proposed. Besides, the gray correlation analysis is used to standardize the data sequence and the correlation is calculated by excel with the big factor as a key factor. To reduce the multicollinearity variables and choose a more accurate prediction model, the paper revises the model by stepwise regression ideas and the Eviews. At last, the paper proposes the development proposals and feasibility to expand the seafood cold chain logistics demand.The research is of great significance for Yantai to forecast the demand of the seafood cold chain logistics. It promotes the development of the seafood and cold chain logistics industry and provides corresponding theoretical guidance. And also, the paper will provide strong reference to the development strategy programming.

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CLC: > Economic > Transportation and economic > Sea transport and economic > Waterway transport economics > Corporate organization and management
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