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Study on the Effect of Industrial Structure Evolution on Energy Consumption Per Unit GDP in the United States

Author: FanZiJie
Tutor: ZhangYaBin
School: Hunan University
Course: Industrial Economics
Keywords: industrial structure evolution energy consumption per unit GDP factordecomposition empirical study
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Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 49
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Abstract


The reduction of China’s energy consumption per unit GDP has been the goal setby the twelfth Five-Year Plan in terms of energy saving and emission reduction. Onthe reference of domestic and foreign experience, energy consumption per unit GDPand energy consumption per unit of industrial value added are also subject toinfluence of energy consumption composition. On the basis of domestic and foreignresearch and theory on the dual structure of energy and economy, this thesis applyingfactor decomposition analysis zeroed in on the impact of industrial structure evolutionon energy consumption per unit GDP in the United States. The Chinese governmentmight also refer to the results in this thesis to take measures saving energy andreducing emissions.This thesis classified industries into primary, secondary and tertiary industries.Using the U.S. energy data from colonial time to now, this thesis conducted aquantitative analysis on the evolution path and characteristics of the U.S. industrialstructure and went further to shed some light on the sectors in the secondary andtertiary industries. Conclusions and summary also led to a reasonable prediction aboutthe future development trend of the U.S. industrial structure. Historical data in thisthesis represented the inverse U curve of the U.S. energy consumption per unit GDP.Taking the evolution path of the U.S. industrial structure into account and using theabove-mentioned historical data, this thesis conducted a quantitative analysis andprovided preliminary conclusions. Relevant researches led this thesis to a detailedanalysis on the primary research methods of industrial structure evolution and energyconsumption per unit GDP and to the process framework of factor decompositionanalysis. Based on Kaya identical equation, this thesis constructed a factordecomposition model. The thorough derivation of the Index Decomposition Analysis(IDA) revealed the advantages and disadvantages of three kinds of IDA methods. As aresult, an appropriate factor decomposition method could be selected. This thesisdeployed Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index II (LMDI II) method to empirically studythe impact of the U.S. industrial structure changes after World War II on the energyconsumption per unit GDP. Estimates of the impact could be by industries dividedinto structure share and efficiency share. The empirical results exhibited the impact ofthe U.S. industrial structure changes on energy consumption per unit GDP. The relative small proportion of primary and secondary industries brought energyconsumption per unit GDP down, and the rising proportion of tertiary industry servedas an engine that drove the increase in energy consumption per unit GDP. However,the structural influence contribution of the primary and secondary industries faroutran that of the tertiary industry, which meant that decrease in the proportion of theprimary and secondary industries and corresponding rise in that of tertiary industrycould lead to a drop in energy consumption per unit GDP. The influence of energyconsumption per unit of industrial value added obviously surpassed the contributionof industrial structure and catalyzed in the reduction of energy consumption per unitGDP. This thesis, at the end, summarized and analyzed the disadvantages of theresearch which provided access to the orientation of the future research, quantitativelyanalyzed the status quo of energy consumption in China’s economy and broughtforward policy recommendations aimed at saving energy.

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