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Feasibility Analysis of China’s "12th Five-Year" Plan Energy-saving Target

Author: SunChen
Tutor: WangWeiGuo
School: Dongbei University of Finance
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: energy intensity affecting factor feasibility contribution degree
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 1
Quote: 0
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Energy is an important material basis for human survival and development, which is extremely related to the immediate interests of survival and development of the Chinese nation and the masses of the people. Along with the economic-development and social-progress, energy plays a more and more important role in a country’s economy. Our country is in the key period of reform and development, the development of industrialization and urbanization has been in the transition as well. Accompanied by the rapid growth of the economy and the continuous expansion of the scale, the consumption of energy is increasing year by year. In recent years, China’s energy output reached new height, especially the speed of growth of coal and power is rare in the world. However, the rapid growth of energy supply still cannot meet the faster growth of energy consumption. In2012, the annual total energy consumption in China is3.62billion tons of standard coal, an increase of3.9%compared with the last year, which is5times more than the initial stages for Reform and Opening-up. China’s GDP accounts for about8.6%of the world, while the total energy consumption accounts for almost19.3%of the world. China has become the world’s second largest energy consumer.In order to alleviate the increasingly serious energy shortage and environmental pollution pressure and increase energy conservation efforts, China has promulgated several clear requirements of energy-saving goals since the beginning of the "Eleventh Five-Year plan". Energy saving has been upgraded to an unprecedented strategic height. In the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the goal of energy saving and consumption reduction is also clearly put forward, that is the national energy consumption of per gross domestic product in2015must be decreased by16%than in2010. However, considering the past second year (2012) of "Twelfth Five-Year", the nation’s unit GDP energy consumption only fell by5.44%compared to2010. It has a long way to go to achieve the energy saving goal of "Twelfth Five-Year " plan.In view of the above facts, this paper put the feasibility of the goal of energy conservation of "Twelfth Five Year Plan" as the main line. Based on energy intensity, this paper has firstly established a model of influencing-factors of economic development, industrial structure, energy prices, energy consumption structure the opening-up degree and analyzed how they influence the energy intensity at the national level. Secondly, influencing-factors models have been separately established at the regional level as the basis for the regions to take police adjustments to share energy-saving target. Thirdly, the paper has preinstalled the range of the influencing-factors at the national level through the scenario analysis and further discussed the feasibility of "Twelfth Five-Year" energy saving target. Finally, in view of that the decline of national energy intensity owe to the four regions’effort, this paper has derived the contribution-degree formula of the region’s effort on the change of national energy intensity. And then, based on the four regions’contribution-degree during "Eleventh Five-Year", the paper has worked out the prediction of the four regions’rate of decline of energy intensity during "Twelfth Five-Year" and the energy intensity should be reached in2015under the premise that the target be fulfilled.The paper has come to these conclusions:With the analysis of the factors affecting the national energy intensity using1990——2012data, a conclusion is drawn:the industrial structure and the energy price has a negative impact on China’s energy intensity, energy consumption structure and opening-up degree will contribute to energy intensity improvement, while the economic development shows a first negative and then positive effort on the energy intensity during the period inspected, but is now in the stage of positive influence.With the analysis of the factors affecting the regional energy intensity using1999——2011data, conclusions are drawn:(1) the East:the industrial structure and government support has a negative effect on the regional energy intensity, the level of economic development will contribute to enhance the energy intensity;(2) the Central:economic development, industrial structure and energy prices have a negative impact on the regional energy intensity, while the openness has positive impact on energy intensity;(3) the West:economic development, industrial structure and ownership structure have a negative effect on the regional energy intensity;(4) the Northeast area:economic development, industrial structure and opening up degree have a negative effect on the regional energy intensity, while structure of property rights has a positive influence on energy intensity.Though the scenario analysis, setting the national energy intensity in2015as the energy-saving target of the "Twelfth Five-Year"(the national energy intensity in2015must fell16%compared to2010, that is the energy intensity in2015should be less than0.67971931tons of standard coal per ten thousand), the paper has preset the reasonable range of the influencing factors in2015and got the conclusion that’ the target can be achieved.Then, according to the four regions’ contribution degree during "Eleventh Five-Year" period and under the premise that the "Twelfth Five-Year"16%decreasing-goal be fulfilled, the paper has forecast that the four regions’ rate of decline of energy intensity are7.221%,21.895%,24.16%and26.913%respectively and the energy intensity should be respectively reached in2015are0.671864,0.764875,0.901137and0.789044tons of standard coal per ten thousand.Finally, according to the results of this study, the paper has put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions.

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