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Tempo-spatial Evolution and Influencing Factors of Urban Residential Land Price

Author: ZouLiLin
Tutor: WangZhanZuo
School: China University of Geosciences
Course: Management of land resources
Keywords: residential land price tempo-spatial evolution influencing factors Wuhan City
CLC: F301.4
Type: PhD thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 345
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Abstract


The level of urbanization in China increased from17.92%in1978to51.27%in2011, and the urban built-up area expanded from7438.0km2to43603.2km2, since the reform and development. Urban with its relatively privileged geographic location conditions, specific industry division of work, convenient transportation conditions and efficient administrative services ability to attract the surrounding population concentrate to the center in the rapid progress of urbanization, and urban population exceeded the rural population from172million to691million. The large collection of the population need to solve the housing problem in the limited space on city land, so the price and distribution of residential land becoming an important parameter of shaping the tempo-spatial pattern of the city, and evolving and reconstructing in a four-dimensional space:time-dimension, two-dimensional geospatial and the level of land price.The tempo-spatial pattern of urban residential land price evolved with some regularity in the driving of various factors, explore and capture the information and its impact mechanisms of this law has an important significance. This paper used the land transaction data of nearly a decade of Wuhan as a empirical study with the application of ESDA and Hedonic model based on the theoretical analysis of the tempo-spatial differences of China’s urban residential land price. ESDA focus on revealed the tempo-spatial evolution law of the residential land and Hedonic model can identify the characteristic factors that affect the land price and can measure the degree of the influence. Some important conclusions obtained in the following five aspects:(1) The literature review showed that the research of mechanisms and its influencing factors of urban residential land price tempo-spatial evolution has been more fully at home and abroad. The dynamic mechanisms of urban residential land price tempo-spatial evolution are mainly from the intrinsic conduction mechanism and external shock mechanism, and at the same time, land speculation is a driving factor of urban residential land price tempo-spatial evolution that can not be ignored. The researches of the influencing factors are mainly expanded from different classification system by scholars from various countries. The literature analysis also reveals that domestic researches have certain defects on research methods, research data, research technical means and research objects.(2) View from our government intervention behavioral characteristics of the residential land market, its more coincidence with rational "economic man" role, government by virtue of its full right to speak in the pricing and decision-oriented rights in configuration, driven urban residential land price presented a significant characteristics in the time growth and space differentiation. View from the theoretical basis of the urban residential land price tempo-spatial evolution, its growth in time meet the supply and demand theory, the awareness level of the land product attributes and the transition of land provide strategy to take for government at different stages are the intrinsic reasons which lead the growth of residential land price, and the non-equilibrium of government behavior in all levels and national macroeconomic strong pull in the process of institutional change is the external reasons to promote residential land prices grow. Space migration in different scales meet the Bid Rent theory, Henry George theorem and Hedonic theory, Bid Rent theory can reasonably explain the differences in location of the urban residential land price, Henry George theorem played a decisive role in the residential neighborhood land price, Hedonic theory can differently manifest the land price of various plots.(3) This paper started from the spatial correlation of the research data and the integrity of time sequence, selected the sell residential land and commercial and residential land case of the main city of Wuhan during the year2003-2011as an empirical study. Through data entry, screening, commercial and residential land price sharing, time correction, the handling of missing values, outliers exclusion, formed308valid samples. Statistical analysis showed that the overall sample point distribution has a certain amount of space differences, and steeper than the standard normal distribution, performance as spike distribution.(4) The characteristics of Wuhan residential land price tempo-spatial evolution studies that supported buy GIS shows that:①View from the evolution of land policy and the operation situation of the market, the residential land market in Wuhan roughly experienced three stages:1992-1998,1999-2005and2006-2011. View from the time characteristics of the transaction cases, between2003and2008is a high-value fluctuation period,2009-2011is a rapid development period of the residential market. View from the regional characteristics of the transaction cases, the number of residential land transactions in Hongshan District is the largest which up to75and in Qingshan District the number is the smallest which only19. View from the ring characteristics of the trading case,59.09percent of the trading cases occurred between the Second Ring and Third Ring in the2003-2011period, and the center of the residential land transaction has transferred gradually from within the Second Ring to Third Ring since2008. View from the dynamic evolution characteristics of residential land transaction cases, the average distance between residential land transaction cases and the reference point increased from6.04km to8.73km in the2003-2011period, and the annual outward expansion has reached0.30km;②The global spatial autocorrelation index of residential land price Moran’s I shows that Since the operation of "Bid Invitation, Auction and Listing system" mechanism, residential land price in Wuhan showing a certain space correlation in general, the CV value further reveals that the spatial difference of residential land price gradually transition from low value agglomeration to high value agglomeration; Local spatial autocorrelation Moran scatter plot shows that the spatial correlation of Wuhan residential land price continue to strengthen over time, the LISA shows that the two residential "hot spots" were distributed in Hankou old city district and Zhongnan district, two "cold spots" were around the Yanxi Lake and the Huangjia lake;③The anisotropic analysis of residential land prices spatial autocorrelation shows that the semivariogram at0°,45°,90°and135°four directions on the performance of ribbon anisotropic characteristics, and most of the change process in about12~15km. The anisotropic analysis of residential land prices spatial autocorrelation also shows that best-fit model for Wuhan residential land price is the index model, its spatial autocorrelation range is11.16km, while the value of Co/(Co+C) shows that the spatial variability of Wuhan residential land prices by46.2%caused by random factors, while53.8%was caused by structural differences.④The price contour map shows that the overall circle mode of Wuhan residential land prices are still quite obvious, based on the specific basis points in a cross-sectional analysis reveals residential land price showed both gradient and mutation in Wuhan, but still showed a gradually declining trend. The three periods residential land price interpolation analysis reveals the high value of residential area focus on traditional commercial center for the radius within a certain range, shows that modern urban living behavior has not completely out of the dependence on the commercial services industry. The adjacent period subtraction put out that the space evolution of residential land price in Wuhan showed a strong continuity in2003-2008period, yet appeared leap of evolution characterized, but in2009-2011period, multiple local residential singular points have been formed.(5) The research of influencing factors to identify and measure for residential land price based on Hedonic model shows that:①With the way which combine normative analysis with literature concluding, identified the key that factors affecting residential land price in Wuhan, Through correlation test of selected factors, ultimately determine use the unit floor price as the dependent variable, and selected22independent variables into the model from the locational characteristics, neighborhood characteristics, individual characteristics, and other characteristics.②The estimation results which use least squares method with three forms of linear, logarithmic and semi-logarithmic Hedonic model of residential land price in Wuhan shows that, the logarithmic form model about the percentage differences in the dependent variable, it can explain58.9%, the linear form model is the worst explanatory power, it can explain only53.9%, semi-logarithmic form model is between the two, it can explain55.5%.③The significant analysis of logarithmic model shows that13characteristic variables can through the model significantly in10%of the test, shows that these are the main reason caused the residential land price differences in Wuhan. View from the sign of the coefficient, except for sign of parcel shape is not the same as expected, and the area of the parcel is negative, the rest are in accord with expected. The variable elastic analysis reveals that the maximum price elasticity is transactions, it is up to62.580, the minimum price elasticity is parcel area, it is-0.078; The degree of variables affect analysis shows that22variables had differences in the degree of influence the residential land price, volume rate was the greatest variable that influence the residential land price.④The typical characteristic factors Measure study shows that the upward trend of residential land prices in Wuhan is obvious, and the land price had a higher sensitivity to time. The space analysis of the city center location value reveals that residential land price of the city center does not have the obvious characteristics of the time, but there is obvious spatial gradient effect of the impact on residential land price. The space sphere of the influence of rail traffic on residential land price in about500m, and its impact on residential land price during operations was significantly higher than the construction period. The range of the impact which lakes and parks on residential land price is400m, and its space effect is not uniform as the distance changes, but there is a certain gradient differences. The impact of volume rate to ground price is much more sensitive than its to floor area price, and the price performance attenuation gradually from the center to the periphery.The systematic study of the tempo-spatial evolution of urban residential land price and its influencing factors is relatively lack in the domestic. The urban residential land market grows in the transition era of rapid economic development, and has obvious traces of the system, the continuous adjustment of policies guide the phased evolution of urban residential space. Therefore, this paper analyzed the internal mechanism of the tempo-spatial evolution of urban residential land price in China from the perspective of the government action, and examined the economic functions of the government in the regulation of residential land price, then took Wuhan City residential land case since the operation of "Bid Invitation, Auction and Listing system" mechanism as empirical research. The results can not only help to deepen and improve disciplines theoretical system and provide guidance for future empirical research, and will provide guidance for the optimization of urban land resources and regulation of real estate market in both theory and practice.

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CLC: > Economic > Agricultural economy > Agricultural economic theory > Land Economics > Land rent
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