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The Study on Monetary Cooperation’s Realistic Foundation and Model Selecting in East Asia

Author: LiuBingYu
Tutor: ZuoJianZhou
School: Northeast Normal University
Course: World economy
Keywords: East Asia’s Monetary Cooperation Realistic Foundation Model Selecting RMB Regionalization
CLC: F821.6
Type: PhD thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 63
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Regional monetary cooperation makes an irreplaceable role in maintaining regional financial stability and promoting regional economic development. East Asia Monetary Cooperation began at Asian financial crisis in1997. In order to guard against financial risks better and avoid the impact, East Asian countries made initial progress in related fields and get some achievements. But in generally, the process of East Asia monetary cooperation is slow.2010European sovereign debt crisis breaks, domestic and foreign scholars worried about the euro area monetary cooperation prospects, but also worry about the ability of East Asia regional monetary cooperation. Meanwhile, the European debt crisis as the single currency union cooperation model appears impact, but also inhibited East Asia regional monetary cooperation in adopting the single currency cooperation mode. Summing up the experience and lessons from the European debt crisis, East Asia should choose the most suitable mode of monetary cooperation.International common regional monetary cooperation model has three models, including single currency union model, the dominant currency regionalization mode and multi-mode monetary union. Euro zone monetary union adopted a single monetary model, and is also super-sovereign currency cooperation. Dominant currency regionalization model includes two parts, one depends on outside strong currency cooperation modes, and another is the region’s strong currency dominant mode. Multi-currency monetary union mode refers that the region established a number of sub-currency area.It is in a single monetary union conditions or several countries without the consistent economic cycle.Combined with the actual situation in East Asia and the euro zone problems exposed in the model, the East Asian monetary union is not suitable to choose a single model. A strong currency is more suitable choice for leading regional cooperation mode. Futhermore, with China’s influenction in East Asia and the circulation of RMB in the surrounding area, RMB regionalization maybe become the reality selection of East Asian monetary cooperation model.This paper is divided into five chapters:The first chapter is theoretical basis and literature review of monetary cooperation in East Asia. Firstly, introduces the OCA theory of cooperation as monetary cooperation in East Asia, which is optimum currency area theory. Secondly, summarize related literature review of East Asian monetary cooperation, and conduct literature review.The second chapter summarizes the East Asian monetary Cooperation’s development process. East Asian countries were introduced the free trade zone, the Chiang Mai Initiative and CMIM, Asian Bond Fund and the Asian bond market integration, the East Asian regional exchange rate coordination, the Asian super-sovereign currency unit--AMU.The third chapter introduces13countries in East Asia Monetary Cooperation on realistic foundation for empirical testing. The chapter examines the feasibility of East Asia OCA with the advanced mthods, such as gravity model, Penalized Spline Filter, asymmetric exponential smooth transition autoregressive.The fourth chapter discusses the European sovereign debt crisis, anaylasis its impact, and give some inspiration about the East Asian monetary cooperation. Analysising the reason of the debt crisis and the pattern of euro area, then point out that the euro zone which uses single currency monetary union cooperation model has many problems. Combined with the actual situation in East Asia, East Asia can not build the conditions for optimal currency area. It is not suitable to choose a single monetary union cooperation model.The fifth chapter suggests that RMB regionalization in East Asia monetary Cooperation is a realistic choice. It gives the reason why choose RMB regionalization as the reality of East Asian Monetary Cooperation model, and analyzes the feasibility of RMB regionalization conditions. Then compare the costs and benefits of the RMB regionalization in East Asia, and propose measures to promote RMB regionalization.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Currency > World currency > International monetary relations
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