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A Study on Factors of International Speculative Capital Flows into China

Author: DanPengFei
Tutor: LiShu
School: Southwest University of Political Science
Course: National Economics
Keywords: international speculative capital exchange rates interest rates stockmark
CLC: F832.5
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 18
Quote: 0
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With the deepening of the process of globalization, national economies arebecoming more and more closely, since China joined the WTO in2001, marketliberalization efforts continue to increase, in the enjoyment of a dividend at the sametime opening the country’s financial market. facing the risk is growing, in which themain risk from international speculative capital inflows, the impact on China’seconomy. International speculative capital, showing the characteristics of highliquidity, profit-driven, high-destructive, if it is unrestricted in mass influx will notonly disrupt our financial order, is a serious threat to the healthy operation of ournational economy, especially China’s financial markets at this stage is not perfect, theregulatory system is not sound, greater pressure faced by international speculativecapital inflow shocks. Therefore, the impact factor of international speculative capitalinto China’s research has important practical significance.This article described on the basis of the results of domestic and foreignscholars in the past, the size of our country in recent years, international speculativecapital inflows, approaches, and the impact of China’s market. Focused on the impactfactor of international speculative capital inflows, the author in the inspection on thebasis of the relevant literature at home and abroad, and further comprehensiveselection of the spot exchange rate, the Sino-US interest rate differential factors, thestock market factors, the real estate market factors, the domestic macroeconomicfactors such as the five elements analyzed, and according to the characteristics ofinternational speculative capital, short-term sensitivity of48months of monthly datafrom January2008to December2011on an empirical factor of internationalspeculative capital inflows, China analysis. Using the method of cointegrationanalysis to establish a long-term equilibrium model and the final establishment ofshort-term dynamic error correction model. The results showed that five factors, theSino-US interest rate differential factors, the stock market factors, macro-economicfactors of international speculative capital inflow has a significant influence, and realestate factors and the spot exchange rate factors of international speculative capital inflows significant, this is not the same, before some of the scholars by the authorstudies the real estate related to the regulation on real estate factors was notsignificant may be due to our continued The spot exchange rate as it has been formed,the reference value provided by international speculative capital controls, exchangerate risk is limited, the ups and downs of the spot exchange rate can not be goodpredictor of long-term exchange rate, the formation of exchange rate expectations.May be the main reason for its not significant.Finally, based on the results of this study, the impact of factors from ourinternational speculative capital inflows to start, some suggestions. Is divided into thepolicy level recommendations and the recommendations of the technical level. Theproposed policy recommendations to speed up China’s market-oriented interest ratereform and improve the stock market and crack down on underground banks.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Financial market
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