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A Study on the Trade Channels for European Debt Crisis to Affect on Foreign Exchange Market

Author: ZhangYan
Tutor: LiZhaoHua
School: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Course:
Keywords: European debt crisis foreign exchange market trade channels
CLC: F832.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 5
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Since the reform and opening-up, China’s economic develop rapidly, especially forforeign trade. China’s degree of dependence on foreign trade is high, which is conduciveto China’s economic development, but there are also some risks. Since the U.S. subprimemortgage crisis in2007, global economic growth slows down, as well as China. Manyproblems appear, such as exports declines, the stock market fell and so on. Therefore, thestudy of the effects that the European debt crisis affects the foreign exchange marketthrough the channels of international trade is very necessary. Complex network theoryuses mathematical matrix portrays the international trade network intuitively, from whichwe can have the coefficient of the European debt crisis spread through the channels ofinternational trade.In this paper, on the basis of the complex network theory and international tradeexport data, mainly considering each country’s main export destination countries, portraythe world trade network. Taking account of factors such as each country’s GDP、 the GDPdeflator、the growth rate of money and quasi-money, extract the impact factors of theEuropean debt crisis affecting the foreign exchange market through the channels ofinternational trade. First, systematically introduce the mechanisms which European debtcrisis affects the foreign exchange market, and use the complex network theory to describethe network of international trade; Second, we use the data of the top five exportdestination of each country and use mathematical matrix describe the trading network;finally we come to the total propagation effects and propagation coefficient that Europeandebt crisis affects the foreign exchange market through international trade network, andfactors affecting the propagation effects through factor analysis.In conclusion, we combine complex network theory and European debt crisiscommunication theory and get intuitive results. Based on the recommendations, we givesome guidance on how to block the spread of the European debt crisis for China.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Exchange rate,foreign financial relations
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