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An Analysis of Influential Factors on Gold Price Change

Author: GaoJianYong
Tutor: XueJianHong
School: Northwest University of Science and Technology
Course: Rural and Regional Development
Keywords: Gold futures prices Gold spot prices Volatility sequence Correlation
CLC: F832.54;F724.5
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 92
Quote: 0
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Abstract


China’s gold futures market was founded in Shanghai on January 2008,marking the establishment of China’s gold marketing system. It is of great importance to analyze the Price discovery function of China’s gold futures market,to explore the factors impacting on the function and find out the countermeasures, which benefits the development of the market when it is in its infancy.This paper reviewed the spot gold and gold futures market in our country two development course, combed the existing research results in these achievements, the basic level of detail on the analysis of Chinese domestic gold spot and futures market, and summarizes the impact the price of gold of various factors. First, this article from the gold in history is the value of original function analysis, set to begin to change that lead has double attributes its gold is mainly to the gold to carry on the long-term investigation and verification, and gold has the currency according to attribute, commodity attribute and so on multiple attribute to analyze the influence of gold prices, it is concluded that the main different factors of the formation of the price, and reveals the internal operation mechanism of the particularity of performance, in itself has the value of stability in the market and to avoid the ability of the risk; Second, the relationship between demand and supply for gold, from middle to carry on the inspection and verification, and that its supply and demand theory are summarized, and the price of gold formation mechanism. Third, analysis, comb gold and dollar prices reverse change relations, gold and oil prices homonymous changing relations ,from short-term to verify gold, the overall generality analysis three of the price of linkage relationship.Research shows that the long term, the price of gold volatility necessarily restricted by its mining cost; In the medium term, the international gold price movements directly by international speculative funds, and the influence of speculative money is mainly ETF rapid growth, become gold prices soar up in recent years the biggest, the most direct power, In the long period of influence, the decisive factor is the gold price of supply and demand, however this kind of supply and demand are relatively stable, mutually adapt. But in a short period, and many other factors can affect the gold prices, such as the dollar index, oil price, political situation factors.

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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > China's domestic trade and economic > Circulation of commodities > Futures Trading
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