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A Study on Convergence of Regional Economic Growth in Zhejiang

Author: DanLei
Tutor: XuJianFeng
School: Zhejiang University of Technology
Course: Regional Economics
Keywords: Regional Economic Growth δConvergence βConvergence Club Convergence
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 72
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Abstract

Economists always foucus on economic growth, which is also an important target all governments pursue. Since the reform and opening up, the regional economic of Zhejiang has made great achievements, but the regional gap is gradualy widen out. At present, there are some considerable different opinions on the causes of regional gap, the development trends and so on, so the research on this issue undoubtedly has important theoretical and practical significance. Based on the samples of GDP of all the citis in Zhejiang, this article has done some researches on regional economic factors of convergence or divergence from 1978 to 2008, and then give some policy suggestions how to puts forward the coordination of regional development.Firstly, the paper summarizes the theoretical related to economic growth convergence, and does a comparative analysis of neoclassical growth theory and new growth theory. Then, give a detailed analysis on the evolution of differences on regional economic growth in Zhejiang, and do a detail investigation on the diffirence of RGDP from 1978 to 2008 of the cities in Zhejiang Province. The result is that both the absolute difference indicators and relative difference indicators are expanding.Secondly, do a empirical analysis on the regional economic growth convergence in Zhejiang. The results showe that: (1) In general, Zhejiang doesn’t exist theδconvergence of the regional economic growth, but in each sub-time interval, which shows alternative phenomenon of convergence and divergence. Between 1986-1995 and 2001-2008, respectively, the coefficient of theδconvergence areλ=- 0.0043 and 0.0021 <0, it shows Zhejiang exists the phenomon of theδconvergence of the regional economic growth. However, between 1978-1985 and 1996-2000, the coefficient of theδconvergence,λ= 0.0059 and 0.0119> 0, so it did not show convergence. (2) In Zhejiang, the absoluteβconvergence of regional economic growth is not obvious. From 1978 to 2008, the coefficient estimate was negative, but R2 is 0.0002, which did not pass the significant level test, so the absoluteβconvergence hypothesis is not fit. Also, when doing the sub-period regression analysis, it showed, between 1986-1995 and 2001-2008 ,the coefficient estimate was negative, but the goodness of fit was very small, we can not draw the conclusions that the absoluteβconvergence exists. Instead, it shows a obviousβdivergence of trends in 1996-2000. (3) In the process of economic growth of Zhejiang, it shows obvious conditions ofβconvergenc. From 1978 to 2008, the fixed capital investment, the develpment of industrialization, and the initial human capital are important for economic growth whch have played a positive role in promoting regional economic growth conditions for the existence of Zhejiangβconvergence. (4) According to the traditional dichotomy of planning, Zhejiang are divided into two regions, which are northeastern and southwestern of Zhejiang, and it showed the club convergence of these two regions. This shows that the inner gaps of the northeastern and the southwestern of Zhejinag are trend to be smaller, and the performance of the economic growth in two regions trends a certain degree of convergence. However, the differences between the two regional economic are not reduced, but expanding, while it shows a club convergence phenomenon in the inner of the two regions,.Finally, summarize the whole text and give suggestions how to coordinate the regional economic development. At last, expect the research direction in the future.

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