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Research on Risk Analysis and Avoidance of Xi’an Southwest Suburb Sewage Treatment Plant Project

Author: YuanLin
Tutor: YangMaoSheng
School: Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology
Course: Industrial Engineering
Keywords: sewage treatment risk management fuzzy mathematics
CLC: F299.27
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 26
Quote: 0
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Abstract


With the economic development of Xi’an, the ecological environment of this city is not optimistic.The status of the entire city water supply capacity is 1.09 million m3/ d, the total sewage discharge is predicted about 800,000 m3/d, whereas the secondary biological treatment of sewage capacity reaches only 31 million m3/d by the sewage treatment plant in Xi’an. This means that a large number of untreated sewage directly discharged into the river, not only endanger the health of people living in Xi’an, but also hampered the rapid economic development of Xi’an even that of the entire northwest region of our country. In this case, the establishment of the Xi’an Sewage Treatment in Northwest suburbs will exert a crucial influence on the society and economy.In view of the characteristics proceeding mentioned, the future risk this project may face is assessed and analyzed scientifically that targeted recommendations are proposed finally in this paper. Regarding the risk assessment and analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis are used. In the theoretical basis of fuzzy mathematics, comprehensive evaluations of the fuzzy mathematical models are established and each risk scored by using expert evaluation method. Based on the fuzzy matrix, the risk indexes are found.The results tell us that the risk ranking of Xi’an Sewage Treatment in Northwest suburbs is medium. That is to say, on condition that the scientific and rational risk management of the project is conducted, the risks in the project construction and operating period will not get in the way of this sewage treatment plant.In this project, the top four of the values at risk (VaR) are:operating risk, financial risk, competitive risk, risk of the changing in environmental standards. At last, this paper proposes appropriate countermeasures in light of these four risks in order to avoid risks. Potential risks are prevented from different points of view through the way of comprehensive risk management which is scientific and rational to ensure that the project proceeds smoothly.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Urban and municipal economy > Municipal economic profiles of countries in the world cities > China > The local urban economy
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