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An Empirical and Methodological Study on Demand Forecasting for Urban Underground Space

Author: LiuJun
Tutor: ZhuWenJun
School: Tsinghua University
Course: Civil Engineering
Keywords: urban underground space demand forecast character index empirical study
CLC: TU984.113
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 243
Quote: 1
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With more and more native cities began to development and utilize underground space, many cities compiled the planning of urban underground space. Demand for underground space is the foundation of strategic objectives and planning of urban underground space, and has important guiding significance for confirming the content, direction, strength and spatial distribution of underground space.This paper reviewed the development and utilization of urban underground space experience at home and abroad, pointed out that the motives and the demand of urban underground space development comes from the enormous pressure caused by land, transport, resources and environment problems encountered by cities. Draw on the concept of psychology and economics, summarized the content and features of demand for underground space, put forward that the demand for underground space has the characteristics of flexibility always talked in economics. Pointed out that the core of the demand forecast should be based on the three-dimensional development needs of the city’s various sub-systems’own mechanism. Combination with urban underground space planning experience in Xiamen, proposed a demand forecast method based on sub-systems and calibration of the individual indicators, established an indicator system for the method, pointed out that the key of the demand forecast is to calibrate the demand strength index.Some land - traffic characteristics impact underground space development intensity. With the relevant theory from economics of urban space, the main land - traffic characteristics: land price, floor area ratio, and land use types, mass transit were analyzed, show that the land price is the main economic driving force to promote the development of underground space. Land type, and traffic is mainly a reflection of functional characteristics and demand intensity of underground space caused by activities on land, summed up the land - traffic indicators impacting the intensity of underground space. In order to verify and further analysis the relationship between indicators and the strength of underground space development collected the actual data of underground space development of the four central districts in Tokyo to quantify and empirical research. According to the spatial distribution of underground space and land– traffic indicators, made statistical analysis of the underground space development intensity spatial distribution and the ratio with volume. The results show that the land price, volume, traffic volume has a significant correlation with underground space development intensity, these indicators can be derived to quantify the strength of underground space development eigenvalue. At last, forecasted the demand for underground space in Xiamen city.

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CLC: > Industrial Technology > Building Science > Regional planning, urban and rural planning > City planning > Urban planning layout > The overall planning > Urban spatial planning
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