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The Economic Forecast with the Characteristic of Subjective and Objective Information Integrated and Its Application

Author: FuJunLing
Tutor: GuoYaJun
School: Northeastern University
Course: Business management
Keywords: economic forecast scenario analysis combined forecast information integrated GDP
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 25
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Adapting to large-scale social production, economic forecasts develops as a science study the course of economic development objective and changes in its trends. Economic forecasting is especially important in China such an emerging market economy country. However, with the rapid development of science and technology, economic system has become increasingly evident that the dynamic complexity and uncertainty. Economic forecasts of knowledge faces a serious dilemma because traditional quantitative methods of economic forecasting can no longer enable the people to grasp the development of future.Scenario Analysis is a new type of prediction method which able to cope with the impact of complexity and uncertainty. There are two roles of scenario analysis in the field of economic forecasts. Firstly, scenario analysis is able to combine qualitative forecasting method with quantitative forecasting method organically which enable prediction model to fully integrate both subjective and objective information. Secondly, scenario analysis takes multiple expected futures into account so that the results are more robust.In this paper, multi-level combined forecast thinking is involved and a fact is pointed that the core idea of combined forecast and scenario analysis is the same:use integrated information to predict. Logically, it’s a reasonable way to resolve the current difficulties which the economic forecasts are facing by organically combining with both of them. Accordingly, this paper attempt to build an economic forecast with the characteristic of subjective and objective information integrated which named scenario-based multi-layer combination forecasting method. Then it applied to predict the growth of Shenyang’s GDP in 2009～2015.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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