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The Analysis and Strategy of Gap Problem under the Current Pension System of China

Author: XiaXinXiong
Tutor: ZuoHaiFeng
School: Nanjing University of Finance and Economics
Course: Finance
Keywords: Pension system Personal gap Replacement race
CLC: F842.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 778
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Pension system is an important part to social system, but because of the aging population and other factors, the pension system of pay-as-you-go faced crisis. Under such background, China reformed the pension system into the combination of social fund and personal accounts in 2005. However, the reform also brings some new problems, such as transition cost, the new balance of social fund and personal accounts are what this article aim to solve.At first, this article analyzes the current situation and gaps after the pension reform in China, and points out the external and internal factors which cause the gap. Second, it bases on the theory of general equilibrium, uses the theory of actuarial to construct the social fund, personal accounts gap and transition cost model as the basic framework of this article. Then it sets related parameters base on the actual situation of China to do empirical research, predict the pension gap from 2005 to 2030, and analyze the balance of supply and demand. Finally, according to the results, it gives out some ways to solve pension gap in stocks and flows.According to the empirical research, at the beginning of Chinese pension reform, social fund surplus and personal account in a gap, while the transition cost is the major part. However, after two decades of reform, with the sharp increase in the proportion of retired workers, social account surplus decrease each year, while the personal accounts gap substantially increase, the surplus begin to be smaller than the gap. It can be predicted that after three decades, the Chinese pension system will meet the end again. Therefore, this article proposes reducing state assets, issuance of special bonds and the use of recurrent government revenue to solve the stock problem, and extending the retire age, adjustment the system and adding additional policy to solve flow problem, in the hope of providing a little help to the sustainable development of Chinese pension system.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Insurance > China's insurance industry > Various types of insurance
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