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△ P for PowerPC theory and the theory test under competitive conditions leads

Author: ZhangYang
Tutor: WangMoYun
School: Shaanxi Normal University
Course: Basic Psychology
Keywords: clue competition PowerPC theory △P theory
CLC: B842
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 18
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Abstract

When people do inductive reasoning, sometimes,there are two or more of the possible reasons arise.When people try to determine their effects, one’s effece is often affected by the effect of another (mainly decreases), this phenomenon is called the competition of cues.But it is not necessarily that there must ba a clues’competition, such as when the ceiling effect occurs, which means if a kind of reason has maximized its impact to the result, then it’s hard to determine how another reason effects.Two theories about inductive reasoning-PowerPC theory andΔP theory have different interpretations of this phenomenon, Therefore, the PowerPC theory was thought that it can explain this issue better, so when people face the clues’ competition in inductive reasoning field,they use this theory. But the author believes that the latter theory is the correct one actually,and proved this point through experiments.On the basis of experience in most cases, the author thought people tend to take a shortcut when they are carrying out inductive reasoning, particularly those involving reasoning such as clues’ competition cases, instead of paying tedious and strict attention to base rate or using PowerPC theory and its data model calculation model.Therefore, in most cases, people will not use PowerPC theory, but use a computing approach to reasoning, which is consistent for the mathematical formula ofΔP theory, or at least results calculated are same with those calculated by using this simple method.This study is to prove it. The results confirmed the assumption of the author,most people useΔP theory to reason.This study is divided into three experiments, each experiment’s basic data structures and research ideas are the same, each experiment’s wthin subjects variable are the same, In other words, the different data structures of wthin subjects variable are setted according to the two theories need to validate. This variable is to verify the superiority of the two theories.Meanwhile, according to the existing researches, factors which affect the clue competitions are as follows:guide words, clues’availability, confidence in the strength of causal power between clues and results and the way how informations are presented.Therefore, so as to examine some certain theory whether is valid under all the circumstances,this study are devided into three experiments.Each experiment tests whether the guide words, clues’availability, confidence in the strength of causal power between clues and results can affect the choice people make when they face the clue competitions.At the same time,as this series of studies are based on pen and paper questionnaire forms, so all of them tested whether the way how informations are presented can can affect the choice people make when they face the clue competitions also.In this study, a series of experiments proved, AP theory is very stable and universal in solving the problem of clue competition.This situation won’t affected significantly by people’s concerns about the interaction, clues’availability or the interference of background knowledges, confidence in the strength of causal power between clues and results which is not too high. But the way the information presented does affect the choice about which computing mode is used.At the same time we further explored why the subjects of this experiment will used the mathematical model supported byΔP theory to solve the clue competition issues, and made a preliminary analysis,proposed that there are several possibilities:For example, the majority of subjects related to the lack of metacognitive knowledge,and there are individual differences among the characteristics of the subjects’cognitions (such as the type of field independence, different levels of self-efficacy and will-drive), cultural differences between test groups, and,of course,the way how informations are presented.Meanwhile, the paper points out that there are many inadequate in current researches in this area. For example, people support theΔP theory or there is "base rate neglect" phenomenon in the judgments of inductive reasoning, probably is because of the low base rates,so the reasoning process have some deviations.Mean while,the experiments are not ecological enough, paradigms of reasoning problems are different from paradigms of practical problems and issues.Finally, author forecasted from a broader view, proposed that many research findings indicate that human cognition is likely to be less rational, or in the reasoning process, people use more intuitive to find the thoughts’ shortcuts.And put forward that at this stage, researches about the Bayesian reasoning, inductive reasoning should perhaps focus on Bayesian judgments, whether the nature of the strategy of Bayesian reasoning is based on probabilistic algorithms, or heuristic reasoning is still a problem worthy of further discussion. Psychologists should not try to put forward the establishment of an ideal human model of rational thinking, whereas ignored the impact of the actual content to the reasoning, because inductive reasoning is based precisely on the basis of the actual specific contents.Therefore, the existence of normative rules that accurately describe the human cognitive reasoning mechanism is questionable. So in any case, the further development of psychology needs the theories have a better and deeper understanding of human cognition, reasoning and other aspects, the new theories will eventually appear. Perhaps the theory which is supported in this paper can always be right, perhaps is going to be replaced, but we have to keep an open mind, respect the scientific criteria that there is not any theory can explaim any aspect of any problems in any case.

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