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Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on a System Dynamic Model and System Optimization

Author: XueBing
Tutor: SongXinShan
School: Donghua University
Course: Environmental Science
Keywords: Water Resources Carrying Capacity System Dynamics Water stress risk index Multi-objective planning model Bohai Rim
CLC: X26
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 130
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Water resources is an essential resource for one of the conditions for social and economic development, but also the ecological balance of the carrier and one of the controlling factors. With the rapid increase in water demand caused by population growth and the economic development, water shortages have become one of the major issues facing the world's most prominent. How to deal with the relationship between water resources and population, environment and sustainable economic development, a common concern of the whole society, but also the research focus of the scientific community. Firstly, according to the Bohai Sea region characteristics of the water system is a giant complex nonlinear systems, applying system dynamics method, starting from the system structure, and take full account of factors such as population, economy, resources and environment, and build the Bohai Sea area of ??water resources system dynamics model, achieving a successful simulation and prediction of the future utilization of water resources. Analytic Hierarchy Process and Vector Norm and quantitative simulation of water resources carrying capacity. While the use of the results of the sensitivity analysis of the model validation, different simulation programs designed for a more sensitive parameter. Options quantitative, scientific decision-making, and put forward a series of suggestions for the realization of the sustainable use of water resources. Water Resources Carrying Capacity is a slight increase in Bohai Rim Water Resources Carrying Capacity in 2011-2020 simulation results shows in development under the conditions of the status quo is, but the change is small. Only in water conservation, pollution reduction, adjust the industrial structure in order to really improve the carrying capacity of water resources, the promotion of economic, social and environmental development of the Bohai Sea region. Based on the theory of \Setting industrial economic development scenarios and the combination of industrial water efficiency programs, and industrial water demand calculation program. Under water pressure risk index, calculated absolute pressure index in 13 cities of the Bohai Sea region and the relative pressure index. Evaluation by the absolute pressure index: the scale of economic development of the Bohai Industrial water use efficiency is very significant, the maximum pressure is Cangzhou, followed by Yantai, large pressure difference between cities, but the development of the industrial economy of the entire region exists water supply risk. Index evaluation by the relative pressure: relative pressure maximum Yantai, Tangshan, Dongying, Cangzhou, the smallest Jinzhou, provincial administrative regions relative pressure Shandong minimum followed Hebei, Binhai New Area. From the time point of view, the the Bohai Rim Industrial Water stress risk increasing trend. Finally, the establishment of the greatest economic benefits in the key industries of the Bohai Sea region, water minimum target set, the total water resources, economic development, scale mathematical model for multi-objective planning water resources carrying capacity constraints set by the solution of the model is obtained optimal water consumption in key industries, as put forward the industry the optimized adjustment programs to improve the carrying capacity of water resources in the region.

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CLC: > Environmental science, safety science > Social and environmental > Environmental capacity and environmental self-purification
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