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Construction of Major Hazard Dynamic Safety Assessment

Author: WuZuoZuo
Tutor: CaiKangXu
School: Hunan University of Science and Technology
Course: Safety Technology and Engineering
Keywords: Dynamic Safety Evaluation System Major hazard source Dynamic monitoring indicators Dynamic warning model Dynamic Prediction Model
CLC: X826
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 95
Quote: 0
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Abstract


At present, China is in a major accident-prone period, with industrial technology, automation, large-scale process is accelerating, while beneficial to the integration and utilization of resources, on the other hand, large-scale production has brought a greater potential danger resistance, the grim situation of production safety may also exacerbate the trend appears. Therefore, building a major hazard dynamic security assessment system development trend forecast accident, timely alarm level tips on prevention of major accidents, and improve the overall security of great significance. In this paper, Alcoa major hazard dynamic safety evaluation studies in the title, in the full investigation Alcoa's process, equipment, facilities, working environment, working conditions, quality of personnel and casualty and other security situation on the basis of production, with probability theory and mathematical statistics, system security theory and gray system theory, the dynamic security assessment system the general pattern, identify the major hazards Aluminum Company, through mathematical modeling, built Alcoa dynamic security assessment of major hazard System of specific models, including dynamic security assessment model, dynamic model and dynamic security alert trend forecasting model. The main results are as follows: 1) general security evaluation model by analyzing the shortcomings, learn from other industries, the basic method of dynamic assessment, dynamic security assessment system proposed research ideas. 2) design a general model of dynamic safety evaluation system, the basic composition comprises an input module, process and output modules. Input modules include dynamic collection of information security detection and quantification, automatic monitoring and manual checks into two categories; processing module is the application of mathematical models for processing the input data, mathematical models, including dynamic security assessment model, dynamic security trend forecasting model and dynamic warning model; Output Module main function is to level from the security situation, security, trend forecasting and warning level three aspects of dynamic display evaluation results. 3) establish a dynamic security assessment, trend forecasting and dynamic dynamic security warning indicator system with three functional mathematical model. 4) In the hazard analysis was constructed on the basis of major hazard Alcoa dynamic safety evaluation system. According to production characteristics, use AHP to determine index weight; fuzzy comprehensive analysis method for safety evaluation; using gray prediction method to detect parameter trends forecast; according to the main monitoring indicators limited range divided warning range, enabling the aluminum companies with the security situation of major hazard dynamic multi-level evaluation. 5) proposed a follow-up research.

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CLC: > Environmental science, safety science > Environmental Quality Assessment and Environmental Monitoring > Analysis and Evaluation of Environmental Quality > Biological assessment, ecological assessment
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