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Prediction and Empirical Analysis on Business Distress of Chinese Listed Companies Based on VPRS Theory

Author: GongZhenYing
Tutor: WangZongJun
School: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Course: Business management
Keywords: business distress corporate governance business distress prediction VPRS theory
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 13
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Business distress prediction has always been the focus of the domestic and foreign schoolars’research. However, most of them are based on indicators. And now the general view is that the weekness of corporate governance is the fundamental reason to the failure.Therefor, it is necessary to use corporate governance variables in forcasting system as well.This paper constructs a more comprehensive indicator system, in which 45 factors are choosen, including 23 ones in five aspects, such as the ownershiop structure, board characteristics, managerial incentives, external governance and non-rational behavior, and 20 ones in five financial aspects. With the use of a sample of 160“ST”listed companies and their partnership samples through years 2006-2009, and their data covering the periods t-1~t-3, this paper tests these 43 indicators by the paired-sample T test at first.Then based on the VPRS theory, this paper sets up prediction models of listed companies business distress and contrasts the effects of the way using corporate governance index with the way without using corporate governance index.Finally, the paper get these conclusions as follows:there are significant difference in early corporate governance factors between the healthy companies and the failure ones. The predicting ability of the model in which corporate governance indicators are introduced is better than that of the model containing the financial indictors only; at the late stage in business distress, the financial indicators show great predicting ability while at the early stage its ability falls heavily.The model considering both the corporate governance and financial indictors are more suitable for early stage prediction.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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