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Study on Scale and Driving Forces of Construction Land of Tacheng

Author: MaHu
Tutor: WangZhe；LaiXin
School: Xinjiang Normal University
Course: Human geography
Keywords: construction sites demand forecast Tacheng correlation analysis multiple linear regression models
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 27
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Land is the basis space security of social and economic development.The chang of land use is not only a direct impact on sustainable socio-economic development, but also an important component of global environmental change,and hence,land use change research in domestic and international concern.Usually refers to construction land for the construction of buildings, structures and the use of the land which makes use of the land carrying capacity.Construction land demand forecast is the overall planning of land use and important part of the scientific and rational manner to the preparation of land using planning: the demand for land for construction must be carried out more accurate predictions.In this paper, land-use planning in the construction land demand is forecast to be studied,through the construction of land demand analysis of the factors affecting the constructed construction land of Tacheng demand forecasting model,combining social and economic of Tacheng development information in 2002-2008, select the demand for land and construction-related factors were significant, the use of multiple linear regression analysis and forecasting method of Tacheng the next 10 years to predict the demand for construction land, draw the following conclusions:First an urban land use, land towns, the expansion of independent industrial and mining land use factor is the driving force of the second and tertiary industries and the GDP,fixed asset investment and urban population;rural residential land expansion factor is the GDP and fixed asset investment,traffic sites From the expansion of GDP,fixed asset investment,passenger, cargo four factors driving;water conservancy facilities from the primary industry output value of the expansion of arable land driving by two factors.Second it can be predicted through 2011 and 2020 respectively,the demand for construction land:1,379,045.4 hectares and 1,448,705.7 ha.Future of this area as construction land of Tacheng demand indicators used in the formulation of land use planning and daily work of land management.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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