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Objective: early predicted severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) , the diagnostic value of serum procalcitonin (PCT) system evaluation . METHODS : the computer retrieval Springer , PubMed, Cochrane Controlled Trials databases , full-text database of academic journals , Chinese Biomedical Literature Database and VIP Chinese Science and Technology journals database , collect relevant primary research literature . The quality of the included studies evaluated according to the the QUADAS quality evaluation standard , Meta-disc software merge its sensitivity , specificity , positive likelihood ratio , negative likelihood ratio test for heterogeneity , draw summary receiver operating characteristic curve (SROC). And widely used clinical Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation score (APACHE Ⅱ) for comparison. Results: Total 218 relevant English literature , Chinese literature 85 . By reading the title , abstract and full-text , in strict accordance with the inclusion criteria , eventually acquired literature 8 ( 6 English literature , Chinese literature , 2 ) , were included in the cases of 650 cases . 8 literature of acute pancreatitis (AP) admission within 24h of serum PCT levels in patients with the diagnosis of SAP pooled sensitivity , specificity , positive likelihood ratio , negative likelihood ratio and SROC AUC were 66.7% (95% CI: 59.4 % -73.4%), 82.8% (95% CI: 79.0% -86.1%), 3.389 (95% CI :2.232-5 .145), 0.423 (95% CI :0.199-0 .900) and 0.7871 4 literature APACHE II over the same period ( diagnostic criteria to score ≥ 8 ) combined diagnosis of SAP sensitivity , specificity , positive likelihood ratio , negative likelihood ratio and SROC AUC were 63.0% (95% CI: 53.7% -71.7%), 77.4% ( 95% CI: 72.6% -81.8%), 2.863 (95% CI :1.791-4 .577), 0.469 (95% CI :0.279-0 .788) and 0.7844 , while the PCT to 79.8% (95% CI: 71.5% -86.6% ), 84.0% (95% CI: 79.6% -87.7%), 4.567 (95% CI :3.508-5 .947), 0.263 (95% CI :0.187-0 .370) and 0.8824 . Conclusion : PCT SAP diagnosis performance higher , the indicators are better than APACHE II and SAP within 24h of admission can be made effectively predict expected as the independent biochemical markers for the early prediction of SAP .
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