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An Empirical Analysis of Rural Residents’ Consumption Excessively Sensitivity and Its Influencing Factors

Author: HuangDunPing
Tutor: JinChunYu
School: Jilin University
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: Consumption of rural residents Consumer excessive sensitivity Varying Parameter Model Dynamic panel model Vector auto regression model
CLC: F323.8
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 125
Quote: 0
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Abstract


This article references the classic hypothesis of consumption, the consumption of excessive sensitivity theory and empirical analysis using quantitative methods to conduct a more comprehensive analysis and discussion on the Consumption of Rural Residents in China and its influencing factors, in order to obtain useful research, for the start of the rural consumer market theory policy basis. Rural residents 'consumption strong spending habits, consumption is not only related to current income, but also to a large extent influenced by the pre-consumption, which indicates that rural residents' consumption not only forward looking and consultants; consumption of reform and opening late The habit is stronger than reform early, this is mainly due to the reform of late the government has increased support for rural, relatively stable income of rural residents, thus making consumption is relatively smooth; the the savings wealth effect coefficient of rural residents during the sample period 1985-1997 for negative, indicating that the rural residents of this stage is an inverse relationship with the deposit balance at the end of the previous period, when the latter increase rural residents current consumption reduce current consumption, mainly because at this stage for the beginning of reform and opening up, just transition from a planned economy to a market the mode of economic development, the rural economy is relatively weak, filled with many uncertainties, precautionary savings needs of rural residents, and rural residents also have a savings traditional consumption will be reduced so that when the savings balance increases. In contrast, rural residents during the savings and the wealth effect of the sample period 1998-2009 was 0.019, a savings balance of rural residents for every one percentage point increase, the current consumption of rural residents will increase by 0.019 percentage points, indicating that at this stage there are wealth effects; sample period the lasting income of rural residents in the marginal propensity to consume and the marginal propensity to consume transitory income during 1985-1997 were 0.53 and 0.607; lasting income and transitory income marginal propensity to consume of 0.587 and 0.954, respectively, during the sample period 1998-2009, the permanent income marginal propensity to consume is lower than the marginal propensity to consume transitory income, which does not comply with the permanent income hypothesis theory. Since the reform and opening up, China's consumption of rural residents excessive sensitivity coefficients 0.61-0.82 between fluctuations, higher than the level of developed countries 0.2-0.6, which shows that consumption of rural residents with strong excessive sensitivity to current income, improve residents' income policy will be conducive to the increase in the total social consumption; consumption of rural residents in China there are strong regional differences excessive sensitivity, when the introduction of interest rate, in addition to the seven provinces of Beijing, Shanghai, Shanxi, Sichuan, Guizhou, Xinjiang and Guangxi outside the rest of the 22 provinces of the estimated interest rate coefficient is less than zero inverse relationship. Ramsay's conclusion, the 22 provinces of rural residents belong to the income effect of risk appetite, interest rate is less than the substitution effect, indicating that the reduction in interest rates will increase the current consumption of rural residents in these areas. Based vector auto regression model impulse response function and variance decomposition for dynamic analysis of factors that affect the rural residents' consumption, since the reform and opening up. Can be drawn from the analysis of permanent income, transitory income, natural uncertainty, market uncertainty, the development of the national economy as well as liquidity constraints have a certain impact on rural residents' consumption, which market uncertainty and the national economy Development greatest impact, followed by permanent income, natural uncertainty and liquidity constraints, the impact of the temporary income is relatively small. Therefore, in order to increase rural residents' consumption should stabilize the market prices of agricultural products, increase people's permanent income, increase the relief to the affected areas, to reduce the impact of liquidity.

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CLC: > Economic > Agricultural economy > China 's agricultural economy > Construction and development of agricultural economy > Agricultural income and distribution
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