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The Rationality of the Level of RMB Exchange Rate

Author: LiXiaoXing
Tutor: LiHuiFen
School: Shanxi University of Finance
Course: Finance
Keywords: Renminbi Equilibrium real exchange rate Elements of the economic fundamentals Rationality Foreign Trade
CLC: F832.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 198
Quote: 0
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Abstract


RMB exchange rate issue has been a major issue affecting China's economic development. The exchange rate as an important economic variables of the Foreign Ministry, the exchange ratio between a country's currency with another currency. Especially after the 2008 financial crisis, the RMB exchange rate issue has been widespread concern in the international community. Current RMB exchange rate is reasonable, whether should appreciate how much appreciation, has become one of the hot issues of domestic and foreign economists study. In this paper, the rationality of the RMB exchange rate, first introduced the concepts and theoretical models of the equilibrium exchange rate, including: basic elements of theoretical models of equilibrium real exchange rate, the natural equilibrium real exchange rate theory model, behavioral equilibrium real exchange rate theory model as well as developing countries currency equilibrium real exchange rate theory model, and then made a brief evaluation on several theoretical models. This paper argues that the the Montiel equilibrium real exchange rate model is more in line with China's current economic development situation, Montiel In this paper, the theoretical basis for the equilibrium real exchange rate theory model. On this basis, we choose labor productivity, the level of government spending, terms of trade and the degree of opening to the outside world as an explanatory variable, the real effective exchange rate of the RMB as the explanatory variables, using quarterly data of the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2010, to the relationship between the the study real effective exchange rate and the explanatory variables. Mainly taken econometric methods, including ADF unit root test, EG two-step co-integration test method and the error correction model to prove the elements of the economic fundamentals and the real effective exchange rate between the long-run equilibrium relationship of each variable in the short term the impact of the real effective exchange rate were analyzed. Then, the application of the HP filter method the equilibrium real exchange rate of the RMB empirical estimates, and estimate the degree of offset of the RMB exchange rate. Estimated offset extent of the RMB exchange rate, and further study the impact of RMB exchange rate misalignment of China's import and export, the results showed that the RMB exchange rate misalignment interested in China's import and export of an impact, but not the most important influencing factors. Then, this article on how to improve the RMB exchange rate misalignment conditions proposed policy recommendations, including: the establishment of a healthy and sound macroeconomic system, improve the foreign exchange market, a clear exchange rate reform objectives and to maintain the stability and flexibility of the RMB exchange rate. Finally, the impact of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations on foreign trade in Shanxi Province and Shanxi Province, how to deal with fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate recommendations, including the financial pilot to lead the industrial structure adjustment and transformation of economic development.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Exchange rate,foreign financial relations
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