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Wind power and thermal power development potential comparative study

Author: YuanBo
Tutor: ZhaoZhenYu；LiuZuo
School: North China Electric Power University (Beijing)
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Wind power Conventional thermal power Cost Analysis Development Trend Analysis
CLC: F426.61
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 431
Quote: 0
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Abstract


China has 70% of the electricity used by the firepower to generate electricity, coal prices continue to rise in the case of wind power is becoming a kind of meaningful alternative thermal energy. And people on air pollution, acid rain and carbon dioxide emissions and other environmental factors that damage degree is increasing concern. The Chinese government has gradually strengthened its renewable energy concerns, hoping to use the natural environment and society sound energy to get electricity. However, wind power in China is still in the initial stage, the relatively high cost alone, generating instability and other factors or wind power is currently the bottleneck. Although the drawbacks of wind power now or a lot, but huge potential for development of wind power, less impact on the environment or on the electric power industry and other advantages with no small attraction. In order to allow the power of wind power can be competitive on the market, most should be the primary consideration is the economic issue that has plagued the wind power industry. And in recent years, the rapid development of wind power core technology and related policies introduced by the Government revolves around reducing the cost of wind power and wind power electricity price to make them. In this paper, sensitivity analysis, by giving the cost of wind power and thermal power cost analysis model, a measurement of the in which the cost of wind power and thermal power cost price greater impact on the sensitivity factors, namely wind power construction cost and thermal power generation cost of coal . Mineral prices and under the general prediction model, and established a thermal coal price forecast model, based on the previous calendar year, the price of coal through the Wiener process to predict future coal prices. Under the existing detection of known coal price forecast results, were amended in order to analyze the thermal power and wind power generation unit costs as the starting point, and bind to the relevant policies and regulations, subsidies for wind power cost implications, to analyze future of wind power units cost trends. In calculating the cost of conventional thermal power process, combined with the development trend of coal prices, the future cost of thermal power have also been predicted, and in the numerical example is rich in wind energy resources in the right, and coal transportation costs were higher areas compared with forecasts of wind power development and the development potential of coal-fired power a comparative analysis, draw the relevant conclusions. China's current pricing mechanism adopted will produce many uncertainties, weakening the ability of investors to control risk, and thus unable to attract more domestic and foreign investors to join this relatively young industry. By the current policy has resulted in the price of wind power variability and uncertainty, hope that through this article for a discussion of wind power to provide a reference basis.

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