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China's Interest Rate Policy and Economic Cycle Research

Author: XiaoQianZhi
Tutor: XuChangSheng
School: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Course: Western Economics
Keywords: Interest rate policy Economic cycle HP filter Counter-cyclical
CLC: F822.0;F124
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 132
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Since the 1990s , frequent rate adjustments constitute our monetary policy operations of the two important means, from 1989 to 2002 , China's one-year deposit rate was raised three times , down 8 times ; including 1996 1999 years , the central bank lowered the 37 months of the deposit and lending rates . In recent years, the use of interest rate policy more frequently , especially before and after the financial crisis , China's economic volatility, the price level is not stable , the central bank in order to control the overheated economy and too cold in the 2007-2011 adjusted 14 times deposit lending rates. 2011 -than-expected inflation in our country , the central bank has cut interest rates twice , repeatedly raised the deposit reserve . Effectiveness of interest rate policy in the end , the impact of the economic cycle on how our country , is to determine the interest rate policy of the important scientific basis for rational use . This paper analyzes the operating characteristics of our country and our interest rate policy transmission mechanism , and then use the HP filter method of decomposition rates and cyclical components of GDP , and ultimately the use of VAR models and impulse response function of the component of interest rates and the dynamics of the economic cycle relationship . The main conclusions are: ( 1 ) With the deepening of market-oriented interest rates , the effectiveness of interest rate policy is gradually strengthened. ( 2 ) In this paper, interest rate cycle component of the economic cycle impulse response function and found that the dynamic impact of interest rate fluctuations in the economy will result in a reverse impact is different from the theory that there is counter-cyclical . ( 3 ) the existence of a certain degree of \( 4 ) our country tend to adopt a \For the main conclusions of this paper , combined with China's economic development background , this paper presents three suggestions: First, to further promote the process of marketization of interest rates , reversing the interest rate and the counter-cyclical economic fluctuations ; Second is to further improve the socialist market economic system ; third is to strengthen scientific and flexible interest rate policy adjustments .

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