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Research on Water Pollution Control in Erhai Basin Based on Grey Theory

Author: ZhangSiSi
Tutor: DongLiMin
School: Central China Normal University
Course: Population, Resources and Environmental Economics
Keywords: Erhai Water Pollution Grey Theory GM (1,1) Water Pollution Control
CLC: X52
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 141
Quote: 0
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Abstract


The water is to humans and all creatures indispensable to the survival of important material , but also in industrial and agricultural production , economic development and environmental improvement of irreplaceable natural resources . However , the past two decades , with the Erhai Lake Basin population growth and rapid economic development , human exploitation of natural resources intensifies, watershed gradual deterioration of ecological environment , Erhai basin water pollution problems have become increasingly prominent , seriously restricting the Erhai Lake Basin socio-economic sustainable development , effective water pollution control , and the Erhai basin socio-economic sustainable development of the urgent requirements . In this paper, on the basis of the investigation and assessment of the Erhai Lake Basin Water Pollution Situation , in-depth analysis of its causes , and the use of GM (1,1) model prediction and prediction results were analyzed to provide a scientific basis for the comprehensive improvement of the Erhai Lake Basin Water Pollution . The main content of the thesis : First, Erhai Lake Basin Water Pollution Situation Analysis Erhai Lake Basin Water Pollution indicators of nitrogen , phosphorus , and chemical oxygen demand from 1993 to 2009 , three water quality monitoring data show that , Erhai increasingly serious water pollution , water quality has been in the 90s of the 20th century, the development of class Ⅱ to the critical state of class III water . Erhai Basin water pollution due to cause major watershed irrational industrial structure , the amount of pollutants generated into the lake increased significantly , Qing aquatic flow mechanism damage , water ecological damage , inadequate investment in environmental management . Erhai Lake Basin Water Pollution Forecast and Analysis Erhai basin water pollution situation directly restricting the sustainable socio-economic development , the establishment of GM (1,1) model to predict the trends of Erhai Lake Basin Water Pollution necessary . Three water quality indicators based on the Erhai Lake Basin 1993-2009 year of nitrogen, phosphorus, and chemical oxygen demand monitoring data modeling and analysis, simulation and real value , accuracy higher than 95% , indicating that the use of GM (1,1) model in Erhai Lake Basin Water Pollution prediction is true . The forecast result is not optimistic that the Erhai Lake Water Pollution development trend , urgent water pollution control . Third, the Erhai basin water pollution control in accordance with the Erhai Lake water quality status and development trend analysis, pointed out that the Erhai Lake Basin Water Pollution Control imminent , establish a comprehensive program of Erhai Lake Basin Water Pollution Control and Governance - structure control source project pollution control and ecological restoration .

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CLC: > Environmental science, safety science > Environmental pollution and its prevention > Water pollution and its control
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