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The Variation of the Monetary Policy Transmission Effects on Regional Housing Prices

Author: ZhouYou
Tutor: ZhangYongYue
School: East China Normal University
Course: Industrial Economics
Keywords: Monetary Policy Residential real estate prices Regional differences Cluster analysis panel data model
CLC: F293.3;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 127
Quote: 0
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Abstract


This paper tries to comb through theoretical and empirical analysis of combining research methods to investigate a unified monetary policy of the regional housing market on China's impact on the effectiveness of the individual, in order to fully assess the regulatory effect of monetary policy tools, and make suggestions for improvement. Article first from the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in general to start, and then introduce the background and implementation of real estate regulation, then theoretically elaborated monetary policy affect the real estate housing prices possibilities and channels, but from the perspective of monetary asymmetric, the use of optimum currency theory, pointing out that our country from the national point of view does not comply with the conditions of optimum currency areas, residential real estate market will lead to a unified regional heterogeneity of monetary policy on the regional housing market conduction effects are different. For conduction effect on the extent it is necessary to quantify different analysis to full-depth understanding of the actual effects of the policy. In theory, based on the third part on the current Chinese real estate market in various regions of the actual situation to do a comprehensive analysis of the current situation, including the main macroeconomic indicators of the regional data management, real estate market trends, and thus on the housing market and government regulation has shown outstanding problems to describe and analyze the possible reasons behind it. Object of study in a clear and specific contents, chapter by cluster analysis methods and panel data models, empirical analysis from January 2003 to December 2010 the 96 month regional house price growth, interest rates, money supply between. Among them, more than the money supply and interest rate index on the same research as well as selected provinces within the framework of the average price and price CAGR evaluation as cluster analysis is a major highlight of this article and innovation. Cluster analysis after completion of the country's 26 provinces to be divided into four categories. Of the major categories were used panel data model to do quantitative analysis, the raw data to make reasonable deformation and after stability test, a clear practical significance of each variable and statistical significance, using spss and eviews6.0 software to complete the corresponding experimental and statistical reliability verification to ensure that the experimental results obtained on actual economic problems explanatory power and persuasiveness. Final conclusion: a unified monetary policy for China's housing prices do have some regulatory role, but with significant regional differences: 1) the money supply in all regions are affected, and the impact is positive, and is the most generally applicable of means. 2) on the regulation of the reserve ratio over the high prices and fast-growing region has a certain inhibitory effect, and the relatively healthy growth areas will not produce inhibition. 3) three-year lending rate, individual fund loan interest rates impact on individual regions, but positive and negative effects is not clear. Finally, to local conditions, take discriminatory policies, a sound commercial banking policy transmission link, and expand the branch's monetary policy authority and other methods to improve the effect of policy implementation.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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